China: Decline in China’s coal consumption accelerates

China’s coal use declined 3.7% in 2015, according to official statistics released by the Chinese government today.

This is the second year running that the consumption of China’s most polluting fuel has declined. What’s additional, the reduction took place while the economy grew.

The data will raise hopes that coal use in the country has finally peaked.

The statistics reveal that the decline in coal is accelerating. In 2014, China’s coal use declined by 2.9%. The year before that, it increased by 3.7%, illustrating the country’s marked energy turnaround.

Meanwhile, renewables continued to grow, with solar capacity increasing by 74% in 2015, and wind by 34%.

According to Greenpeace analysis of the figures, this means that China’s CO2 emissions declined by 1-2% in 2015.

The role of coal

The significance of China’s coal use extends beyond its national borders. In particular, it is one of the major factors globally that determines evolution in tackling climate change.

Responsible for 30% of total emissions, China is the world’s major emitter. In 2014, it emitted about as much CO2 as the US, EU and India combined.

The majority of this pollution is tied to coal.

According to EU data, the fuel constitutes 73% of China’s fossil fuel consumption, and is responsible for 83% of the CO2 emissions that result from burning fossil fuels. This reflects its higher carbon intensity compared to oil and gas, where consumption continues to rise.

The data released today shows that coal is presently responsible for 64% of China’s total energy consumption.

The Chinese government does not regularly release official estimates of domestic emissions. However, using other official data as a proxy, inclunding coal and electricity consumption, other analysts have tried to calculate a figure on its behalf.

In 2014, as China’s coal use fell by 2.9%, studies variously found that Chinese emissions declined by 0.7%, or saw a small increase of 1.2% or 0.9%, depending on how analysts made the calculation. Recent revisions to China’s fuel consumption and pollution are testament to how notoriously difficult this undertaking can be.

Regardless of the precise figure, it should be obvious that this represents a dramatic slowdown from the initial decade of the 2000s, at the same time as China’s emissions were increasing at a rate of around 10% per year.

As the major emitter, trends in Chinese emissions visibly influence the world picture.

Alongside declining coal use and (arguably) declining Chinese emissions, 2014 was as well a landmark year for world emissions.

At the same time as the world economy expanded, emissions almost stalled, rising by only 0.6%, according to a Nature paper, which Carbon Brief covered at the time. Estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) went even further, stating that world emissions actually did stall in 2014.

This contrasts to annual increase of around 4% for the completed decade.

The decline across coal, Chinese emissions and world emissions appears to have not only repeated, but as well accelerated, in 2015.

An early estimate published in Nature, based upon low Chinese coal consumption for the initial eight months of the year, found that China’s emissions declined by 3.9% in 2015, with world emissions correspondingly shrinking by 0.6%.

This happened at the same time as Chinese and world economies grew by 6.9% and 2.4%, respectively, showing that it is possible to decouple economic increase from emissions.

Analysis by Glen Peters, a senior researcher at CICERO, of the statistics found that China’s CO2 emissions dropped by 1.9% in 2015, albeit with large uncertainties.

There are other signs that China took a turn for the cleaner in 2015.

In 2015, total electricity consumption grew by 0.5%, according to official statistics, compared to increase of 3.8% in 2014.

The government attributes this to economic restructuring in China, as the country tries to replace its rapid boom with a additional sustainable form of increase. This means, for the initial time in 40 years, industrial electricity consumption shrunk, with request shifting towards domestic consumption and services instead.

Not only did China consume less coal, it as well produced, imported and exported less.

Coal as well went from providing 66% of China’s energy consumption in 2014 to 64% in 2014 — at the same time as energy consumption rose in general by almost 1%.
China's year-on-year % change for 2014 and 2015 for coal

Year-on-year % change for 2014 and 2015. Source: National Bureau of Statistics China. Chart by Carbon Brief.

The chart shows that China is continuing to expand its thermal generation capacity, which is mainly coal. Some have taken this as a sign that falling consumption is an anomaly, with the general trend still being upwards. Professor Boqiang Lin from the Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University said:
“There will be huge uncertainty in China’s next energy consumption mix and carbon emission outlook. China’s request for coal is likely to recover once the economy turns for the better and energy request rebounds. Even if total energy consumption increase rate is zero, to replace 1% coal consumption requires 10% increase in clean energy. This is not an easy task and we should not overestimate the trend.”

From presently on this new capacity is not being used, and government policies are constraining their use someday, which could create an “investment bubble” for coal plants and a missed opportunity for renewables, Greenpeace analysis suggests.

Renewables, nuclear, oil and natural gas stepped in to fill the gap. Consumption of crude oil rose by 5.6%, natural gas by 3.3% and electric power by 0.5%. The installed capacity of renewables and low-carbon forms of energy as well increased across the board, with increase in wind and solar outstripping the pace of increase seen in the previous year.
China's year-on-year % change in installed capacity for renewables and low-carbon, for 2014 and 2015.

Year-on-year % change in installed capacity for renewables and low-carbon, for 2014 and 2015. Source: National Bureau of Statistics China. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Greenpeace has as well looked at changes in how much energy was generated, in addition to how much additional capacity was installed.

Changes to China's electricity generation. Source: Greenpeace

Changes to China’s electricity generation. Source: Greenpeace

Lauri Myllyvirta, senior world campaigner on coal at Greenpeace, explained his findings to Carbon Brief:
“The preliminary power generation data shows the precipitous fall in thermal power generation, by 2.7%. Coal use for power generation fell even additional, by at least 4%, as power plant efficiency improved and gas and biomass displaced coal in thermal power generation. The output increase from wind and solar alone additional than covered increase in power request, and the total increase in non-fossil power generation was four times as large as the increase in request. These trends will continue, as clean energy deployment speeds up and power request increase slows as a result of structural change and slower increase in the economy. It is as well notable that while nuclear power capacity surged as a result of a batch of reactors being completed at the same time, wind and solar power delivered an even larger increase in power supply.”

In total, “clean energy” consumption (which includes nuclear and natural gas) accounted for 17.9% of total energy consumption in 2015, an increase of 1% on the previous year.
 

China vs climate change

A decline in coal is not only beneficial for China, but as well for the world.

It undermines the arguments of those who still claim that inaction on climate change from China excuses other nations from acting.

For this decline is not just due to economic restructuring. It is as well down to a raft of climate change measures that are curbing China’s carbon emissions and the heavy smog, christened an “airpocalypse” by some, that has made daily life hazardous for residents of China’s most polluted cities.

By 2020, China has pledged to cut air pollution emissions from coal-fired power plants by 60%, saving around 180m tonnes of CO2 each year in the process. According to China Daily, Beijing has declared it will “wipe out” coal use in its most rural areas.

It as well wants to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 40-45% on 2005 levels. China has suggested it may “far surpass” this. Today’s statistics show that the all of energy that is consumed in China per unit of GDP dropped again by 5.6% in 2015, on top of the 4.8% drop seen in 2014.

In addition, China has said that coal should be reduced to below 62% of primary energy by 2020. With today’s statistics showing that coal dropped in 2015 to 64% of total energy consumption, China looks to be on track to achieving this.

It recently announced that it will restrict new coal-fired power plants, refuse to approve any new coal mines for three years, and will aim to close additional than 1,000 mines over the course of 2016.

China as well has longer term targets, pointing towards 2030, made as part of its contribution towards the UN climate transaction reached last year in Paris.

This includes promises to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 at the new, lower the carbon intensity of its GDP by 60-65% below 2005 levels and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix to around 20% by the same year.
Peak coal?

In the world of climate change, pinnacles are not always neat. It is difficult to say definitively whether China has peaked coal as what goes down can as well go up.

This has been the case for US emissions, which continue to fluctuate, and as well Japan’s, which have been on the rise again since 2009.

According to the IEA, it is “feasible” that China by presently passed peak coal in 2013.

But, regardless of fluctuations, the combination of real world evidence and governmental policy makes it clear that the next’s not bright for the coal industry — while the sun continues to rise on China’s luck for hitting the climate targets it set itself in Paris.