Senegal

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Senegal Country Profile 2012

 

The country (Senegal) is located in Western Africa, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean, between Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania.
It has borders with Gambia for 740km, Guinea for 330km, Guinea-Bissau for 338km, Mali for 419km and Mauritania for 813km.
Land in Senegal is generally low, rolling, plains rising to foothills in southeast.
Senegalese land covers an area of 196190 km².
The climate varies to tropical and hot and humid to a rainy season (May to November) and strong southeast winds. The dry season (December to April) is dominated by hot, dry, harmattan wind.
Senegalese (singular and plural) speak French (official), Wolof, Pulaar, Jola, Mandinka.

Overview

Senegal's record as of the majority democratically developed and stable polities in Sub-Saharan Africa has been reaffirmed by the peaceful transfer of power to a new president, Macky Sall, in March 2012, after the incumbent, Abdoulaye Wade, conceded defeat. After the fiscal deficit widened in 2011, because of elevated investment spending, we expect it to shrink over the estimate period to an average of 5.2% of GDP as economic increase accelerates. As foreign direct investment inflows, industrial and agricultural output and public works grow, we estimate that real GDP will accelerate to 5.2% in 2016. An unreliable power supply will remain a key downside risk.

Political outlook

In March 2012 Senegal elected a new president, Macky Sall, who defeated his former mentor, Abdoulaye Wade, by a wide margin of 66% to 34%, on a turnout of 55%, in polling recognised by observers as being fair and peaceful. Mr Sall named Abdoul Mbaye, a non-partisan former banker, as his new prime minister. The government will be slimmed from 40 posts to 25.

Economic policy outlook

The French development agency (AFD) signed an agreement to grant a local bank, SGBS, EUR250,000 (US$325,000) for "meso-finance" product development, to service the unbanked "missing middle".

In mid November the Casablanca stock exchange held a forum in Dakar on financing small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). Tight credit for SMEs is a major brake on Senegal's economic potential.

Economic forecast

Having slowed to 2% in 2011, real GDP increase is set to recover over the estimate period, reaching 5.2% in 2016. Strong real output (as power supply problems are resolved), coupled with rising prices and a weakening currency, has boosted exports. We expect the current-account deficit to narrow in 2012-16, but to remain unsustainably wide.

Increase is set to accelerate over the estimate period to 4.4% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013. Strong real output as power supply problems are resolved, coupled with rising prices and a weakening currency, has boosted exports. We expect the current-account deficit to narrow in 2012-13, in line with commodity prices.

Outlook for 2012-16

  • Political and social tension is likely to subside after the former president, Abdoulaye Wade, conceded defeat to the newly elected Macky Sall, safeguarding Senegal's democratic credentials.
  • Separatist violence in the Casamance region will continue to intensify, forcing the new president into adopting a stronger approach towards the seemingly intractable 30-year insurgency.
  • After the fiscal deficit widened in 2011 because of elevated investment spending, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that it will shrink over the estimate period to average 5.2% of GDP as economic increase accelerates.
  • As foreign direct investment inflows, industrial and agricultural output and public works grow, we estimate that real GDP increase will accelerate to 5.2% in 2016. Unreliable power supply will remain a key downside risk.
  • Inflation is estimate to moderate to 2.5% in 2012, from 3.4% in 2011, helped by lower commodity prices. It will tick back up to 3.2% in 2013 as economic increase picks up, but will decelerate thereafter.
  • The current-account deficit is estimate to narrow from an estimated 12.7% of GDP in 2011 to 9.7% of GDP in 2012, and to continue to narrow in 2013-16.

Monthly review

  • In March 2012 Senegal elected a new president, Macky Sall, who defeated his former mentor, Abdoulaye Wade, by a wide margin of 66%-34%, on a turnout of 55%, in polling recognised by observers as being fair and peaceful.
  • On April 4th Mr Sall named Abdoul Mbaye, a non-partisan former banker, as his new prime minister. The government will be slimmed from 40 posts to 25.
  • The French development agency (AFD) signed an agreement to grant a local bank, SGBS, EUR250,000 (US$325,000) for "meso-finance" product development, to service the unbanked "missing middle".
  • Presidential approval is expected for a national law to regulate the production and environmental impact of biofuels, to improve national energy security.
  • A series of reports by a UK-based NGO, the Environmental Justice Foundation, have highlighted the impact of foreign-owned industrial fishing trawlers on local artisanal fishing and the rising risk of piracy.
  • Teranga Gold (Canada/Australia) has announced a set of favourable drilling results from its Sabodala permit, adding 500,000-1m oz to mineable inventory over the next 18 months.
  • Low-cost housing development will be boosted by a credit line of EUR8m to the Banque de l'habitat du Sénégal from the AFD.