Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan expects oil output at 92 mln tons in 2020

This remark was made by the country's Deputy National Economy Minister Marat Kusainov during the presentation of the draft national budget for 2016-2018 in the Majilis of Parliament on September 15, local media reported.

“The oil production estimate by the Ministry of Energy in 2016 will all to 77 million tons, followed by an increase to 92 million tons in 2020, which is lower than the before forecasted data by about 3.8 million tons and 12 million tons respectively,” he said.

Kazakhstan's three-year budget project is based on the estimate of socio-economic development for 2016-2020 approved by the country's Cabinet of Ministers in August 2015.

“It is expected that the volume of industry in 2016 will remain at the level of the current year, followed by increase from 1.7 % in 2017 to 3.8 % in 2020,” the official noted.

Kusainov went on to add that the average annual increase of gross agricultural output in 2016-2020 will all to 2.8 % per year, the increase rate of trade in services will all to 4.5 %, while the volume of transport services, data, and communications is expected to remain at the same level as in 2015.

"During the formation of the estimate for the macroeconomic index and budget parameters, the estimated rate of tenge was taken at the level of 250 tenge to one dollar,” Kusainov said.

Kazakhstan produces oil mainly from its major Karachaganak and Tengiz fields.

The Karachaganak field is one of the world's major fields. Its oil reserves all to 1.2 billion tons while natural gas reserves are estimated at 1.35 trillion cubic meters.

About 49 % of Kazakhstan's gas production and 18 % of oil production are extracted from this field.

The Tengiz field in the west of the country is one of the deepest and major oil fields in the world. Total estimated reserves all to three billion tons (26 billion barrels).

An extra large oil and gas field, Kashagan, is located in the north of the Caspian Sea. Oil production at Kashagan started in September 2013, but operation was suspended at the same time as a gas leak appeared from the ground pipeline.

Kazakhstan's budget deficit to decrease from 2016 to 2018

The government expects Kazakhstan's national budget deficit at 723.4 billion tenges ($2.55 billion) in 2016, 600.8 billion tenges ($2.12 billion) in 2017, and 552.3 billion tenges ($1.95 billion) in 2018.

Given the projected GDP increase and import volumes, national revenues added to the national budget (excluding transfers) are projected at 3.513 trillion tenges ($12.4 billion) in 2016, 3.724 trillion tenges ($13.2 billion) in 2017, and 4.132 trillion tenges ($14.59 billion) in 2018.

Kazakh budget expenditures are projected at 7.319 trillion tenges ($25.84 billion) in 2016, 7.731 trillion tenges ($27.3 billion) in 2017, and 7.457 trillion tenges ($26.33 billion) in 2018.

Total revenues of the republican budget in 2016 will all to 6.595 trillion tenges ($23.28 billion), 7.13 trillion tenges ($25.17 billion) in 2017 and 6.905 ($24.38 billion) trillion tenges in 2018.

Kazakhstan to see increase in GDP

The Kazakh government expects a 2.1 % GDP increase in 2016. This was envisaged in the socio-economic development of Kazakhstan for 2016-2020, approved by the government.

In accordance with forecasts, real GDP increase in Kazakhstan is expected to reach 3.6 % in 2017, 2.9 % in 2018, 3 % in 2019, and 3.1 % in 2020.

In 2014, real GDP increase in Kazakhstan amounted to 4.3 %, while in the initial half of 2015, the GDP increase in Kazakhstan stood at 1.7 %.

The nominal GDP increase for 2016-2020 is projected at 7.4-9.8 %.

In accordance with forecasts, GDP per capita in Kazakhstan will all to additional than $10,000 in 2016 and increase to $13,200 in 2020.

Exports will increase from $41 billion in 2016 to $55.1 billion in 2020, and imports from $28 billion in 2016 to $30.5 billion in 2020.

The inflation rate in 2016-2017 is expected to be at a level of 6-8 %, 5.7 % in 2018, 4.6 % in 2019, and 3-4 % in 2020.

The Kazakh government has developed the estimate for the country's socio-economic development for 2016-2020 taking into account the results of the development of sectors of the economy in 2014, data from national bodies, inclunding the forecasts of international organizations on the increase of the world economy and world prices for the major export commodities.

The budget of Kazakhstan for 2016-2018 was drafted taking into account this estimate.