Myanmar: Official growth forecasts for the 2014/2015 fiscal year stand at 9.1%

A surge in foreign investment , together with solid domestic request, helped Myanmar achieve a strong increase in 2014. However, the year as well brought challenges, which contributed to a widening in the trade deficit as the country relies heavily on imports to support skyrocketing domestic request.

Official increase forecasts for the 2014/2015 fiscal year stand at 9.1%, slightly higher than the IMF and the World Bank estimates of 8.5%, with FDI for the same period on course to rise 70% year-on-year.

Data issued in mid-December by the Directorate of Investment and Companies Government shows that foreign investment increased substantially in 2014. About $3.8bn entered the economy during the initial eight months of the 2014/2015 fiscal term –beginning in April – almost matching the total secured for the previous financial year of $4.1bn, according to Reuters. The industrial sector took the lion’s share of investment , with $1.1bn, and hydrocarbons were second in line, attracting around $800m.

Tourism poised for boom

The rise in FDI was supported by Myanmar’s growing appeal as a new tourist destination in South East Asia. Overseas firms invested $354m in hotel development during the April-to-November period, while visitor numbers and revenue from tourism rose sharply last year. Arrivals totalled 3.5m in 2014, up from 2m in 2013, with earnings breaking through the $1bn barrier to reach $1.14bn, a rise of additional than 20% on the previous year, according to the new data from the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism. Myanmar expects to receive 5m tourists in 2015.

However, the increasing tide of capital could come at a cost. A statement issued in mid-December by Deutsche Bank acknowledged Myanmar’s growing attraction as an investment destination, but as well sounded a note of caution. The statement said that while capital inflows were supporting development, particularly in infrastructure, the capacity to manage and regulate those flows required development. The bank’s cautionary note echoed an IMF warning before in the year that request-side pressures on inflation and large capital inflows risked straining Myanmar’s still-infant macroeconomic management tools.

Market liberalisation

Reforms announced in 2014 will bring major changes to Myanmar’s financial sector, led by the opening up of the banking segment to foreign lenders.

In October, the government granted licences to nine overseas banks, in a bid to facilitate FDI inflow and improve banking services. The banks, all from the Asia-Pacific region, are expected to commence services by the beginning of the fourth quarter this year.

However, their operations will be limited and subject to several constraints. While the new players will be able to accept deposits and make loans in US dollars and the euro to foreign businesses, engaging in routine retail banking remains off limits. This, and other restrictions, such as being able to make local currency loans to domestic businesses only through a registered Myanmar bank at fixed rates, is seen as limiting to any impact that newcomers may have on monetary movements, thereby minimising their result on the banking industry.

The planned opening of the Yangon Stock Exchange should signal a further broadening of Myanmar’s financial sector in 2015. Trading is scheduled to begin late in the year, although regulations governing the market’s operations still need to be finalised and a number of obstacles need to be overcome such as a limited number of companies being able to meet the listing requirements at this stage.

Heightened activity was as well evident in Myanmar’s telecoms sector, with the launch of two newly-licensed operators. Ooredoo of Qatar and Norwegian service provider Telenor both began operating in September, next being granted licences early in 2014.

Risk factors

The year ahead will herald in further developments with a general election scheduled to be held at the end of October or the start of November, according to press reports in early January.

However several risk factors are weighing on Myanmar’s economic development. Rising domestic request and a fall in the kyat – which dipped by additional than 20% next it was floated in April – led to the trade deficit widening in 2014 to additional than $3bn. Inflation as well rose, with some estimates putting it above 7%.

Concern is presently growing that falling international energy prices could reduce interest in new oil and gas projects as the government looks to offer several new blocks for exploration this year. However, while the immediate outlook may be uncertain, domestic request for energy should help keep investors focused on Myanmar’s natural resources in the long term.