Americas > South America > Ecuador > Ecuador Oil and Gas

Ecuador: Ecuador Oil and Gas

2011/01/21

For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average price of OPEC basket of U.S. $ 83.00/bbl, 36.4% year on time(yoy). The risk is presently clearly on the downside, due to the slow evolution in June However, results for the year in additional than U.S. $ 80 is still a strong possibility and we see no need to revise our assumptions at this point. The 2010 U.S. WTI is presently at U.S. $ 87.63/bbl.

We are assuming an OPEC basket price of U.S. $ 85.00/bbl in 2011, WTI averaged U.S. $ 89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging U.S. $ 90.00/bbl, WTI delivery to just over U.S. $ 95.00.

For 2010, the assumption of unleaded gasoline is an average price of U.S. $ 95.45/bbl. The in general gain in the year 2010 price of gasoline is set at 36%. Diesel in 2010 is expected to average U.S. $ 93.23/bbl. The full year result represents an increase of 35% compared to 2009 levels. For 2010, the annual level jet price should be U.S. $ 95.90/bbl.

This compares to U.S. $ 70.66/bbl in 2009. The average price of naphtha in 2010 asked by BMI at U.S. $ 83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. The real GDP of Ecuador in 2010 is expected to fall by 2.8%. We are assuming an average annual increase of 1.9% in 2010-2014. National-owned Petroecuador cooperates with several international oil companies (IOCs) and they gave them a better volume of crude oil over the last years. We assume oil and gas liquids not additional than 425,000 b / d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 480,000 b / d in 2010. Beyond 2009/10, consumption should increase by about 3% per year, implying request of 250,000 b / d by the end of the estimate period. The net export capacity would be about 175,000 b / d by 2014.

Between 2010 and 2019, we expect a decline in oil production in Ecuador of 13.5%, with crude volumes falling, from about 480,000 b / d in 2010 to 415,000 bpd by the end the estimate period of 10 years. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set at an increase of 30.5%, with increase slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 290,000 b / d in 2019 . Gas production and consumption will increase only slowly from a low base over the period.

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