Increased temperatures related to Climate change have been recorded in the last decade and the consequences are less sea ice, decreasing glaciers, before spring river floods, changes in distribution and feeding patterns of fish stocks, migration of new marine species into Icelandic waters, changed tree line etc. Climate change may have biological effects and impacts on biodiversity, economy, transport, health and sea level, and as well lead to increased frequency of extreme and hazardous weather (1).

References

(1) Climate Change and consequences, Science comittee. Statement in Icelandic. http://www.umhverfisraduneyti.is/media/PDF_skrar/vedurfarsbreytingar_lokautg.pdf

Between 2000 and 2006, some 0.62 % of Iceland’s surface area changed its land-cover types. The majority prominent changes occur in forests and semi-natural surfaces. The major land-cover change is the retreat of glaciers in recent years because of world warming. Between 2000 and 2006, the glaciers shrank by 180 km² or 1.63 % which corresponds to an annual reduction of 0.27 % (1).

References

(1) Corine Land Classification in Iceland 2000-2006. Statement in Icelandic. http://www.lmi.is/Files/Skra_0038437.pdf

Iceland’s Assigned Amount Units for the first commitment period are 18.5 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, or 3.7 million tonnes per year on average. Iceland’s total Annex A greenhouse gas emissions were 4.9 million CO₂-equivalents in 2008, or 43 % above 1990 levels and an 8 % increase from 2007. As the Icelandic people in 2008 was approximately 315 500, this amounts to 15.5 tons/capita. Emissions have increased in amount sectors since 1990 except fisheries (21 % reduction) and agriculture (2 % reduction). The greatest increase in emissions was from the aluminium industry. However, emissions per tonne of aluminium produced have decreased while aluminium production has increased from 88 000 tonnes in 1990 to 780 000 tonnes in 2008. It should be noted that over this period (1990-2008) the Icelandic people grew by about 24 %.

Figure 1. Emission of greenhouse gases (in million tonnes) by categories in Iceland 1990 to 2008 (1).

The greenhouse gas emissions profile for Iceland is in a lot of regards unusual. Firstly, emissions from the generation of electricity and from space heating are very low, since they are generated from renewable non- or very low-emitting energy sources. Secondly, about 80 % of emissions come from industry, transportation and fishing vessels (2).

Industrial processes

Production of non-ferrous metals is the major source.

Energy production

The major part is from geothermal plants (4 %) (1).

Transport

Road transport is the major source of greenhouse gas emissions from transport. The number of passenger cars increased by 32 % between 2000 and 2008 and freight vehicles by 64 % in the same period.

Fisheries

The fisheries sector accounts for 12 % of total emissions. Fuel combustion in the fishing fleet is the major source.

The Kyoto targets

According to the Kyoto Protocol, Iceland’s specific obligations concerning greenhouse gas emissions are twofold:

1) Greenhouse gas emissions from Iceland should not increase by additional than 10 % over and above 1990 levels, that is, remain within approximately 3.7 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents per year, on average, during the period 2008-2012.

2) Emissions not exceeding 8 million tonnes of CO₂ from industrial processes during the commitment period, falling under 'single projects', according to Decision 14/CP.7, shall be reported separately and shall not be included in national totals to the extent that it would cause Iceland to exceed its assigned amount (1, 2).

References

(1) Emissions of greenhouse gases in Iceland from 1990 to 2008. National Inventory Statement 2010. Statement in English. http://www.ust.is/media/fraedsluefni/ICELAND_NIR_2010.pdf

(2) Iceland’s Climate Change Strategy. Statement in English. http://eng.umhverfisraduneyti.is/media/PDF_skrar/Stefnumorkun_i_loftslagsmalum_enlokagerd.pdf

Technical possibilities of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in different sectors of the Icelandic economy were explored by a committee of experts in a statement published in 2009 (1).
The bulk of greenhouse gas emissions in Iceland comes from industrial processes (41 % in 2008) and energy (43 %), followed by agriculture (12 %) and waste (4 %). The industrial process emissions are mainly from primary aluminium production and production of ferro-silicon. These industries, which utilise electricity from hydroelectric and geothermal energy resources, will become part of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) in 2013. Mitigation methods that are technically feasible before 2020 distribute unevenly between sectors, and the cost of mitigation differs substantially. These options are currently being weighed by a committee appointed by the minister for the environment to prepare an implementation plan for greenhouse gas mitigation in Iceland.

World warming and its effects in Iceland (2) have been described by a scientific committee, appointed by the minister for the environment, in a statement published in 2008 (2). The major findings are that average warming in Iceland until the middle of the century will be around 0.2 °C/decade and that precipitation will increase by 2‑3 % for each degree Centigrade. The frequency of rainy days and the intensity of precipitation will increase. The number of cold spells during winter will decrease and heatwaves during summer will become additional common. Rapid retreat of glaciers is expected during the 21st century resulting in increased run-off until the middle of the century when run-off starts to decrease because of continuous thinning and recession of the glaciers. This will result in significant land rise with increased volcanic activity and glacial river beds will change. The effects on marine life will depend on how ocean currents, mixing processes and borders between warm and cold currents will react to climate change. Warmer climate will have a positive effect on the potential of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon in soil and vegetation. Changes in vegetation, e.g. expansion to higher elevations and increased natural birch forests, will have an effect on insects and birdlife. A positive effect is expected on the potential of growing crops while pests, plant diseases, storms and sea-level rise can pose threats. Possible threats to human health imply increased risks of allergies and communicable diseases, but the impacts will probably be minor given the current strength of the health-care system. The effects described above apply to the remainder of this century and beyond and the intensity will depend on how emissions of greenhouse gases will evolve in coming decades. Some of the effects are likely to be already visible in 2020.