Belgium: Belgium Climate change mitigation

There are signs suggesting that climate change is already having an impact in Belgium with very high annual average temperatures being recorded over the past two decades, roughly a 7 % increase in annual mean rainfall since 1833 and early migration of some species of birds. All climate scenarios clearly indicate, by 2100, an increase in the ambient temperature (e.g. by 1.5 °C to 4.4 °C in winter and by 2.4 °C to 7.2 °C in summer), a higher evaporation in both winter and summer and, finally, more precipitation during winter. The sea level at the Flemish coast may rise by 20 to 200 cm this century. The majority of climate scenarios indicate a drop in the average summer precipitation. Combined with higher evaporation this will decrease the lowest river flows during dry summers by over 50 % by the end of the 21^st century. The chances of severe water shortages increase as a result. Despite a drop in summer precipitation, an increase in the number of extreme summer storms may be expected. This increases the probability of flooding of sewers [1].

We are starting to obtain interesting data on future climate change from emissions scenarios and socio-economic forecasts. Current data lead us to believe that ecosystems and forests will be vulnerable in Belgium, even if average regional temperatures rise by less than 3 °C (2 °C worldwide) (in summers from the end of the 20th compared to summers at the end of the 21st century). The coastal region, water resources, flood risk and human health could also be a concern in such a scenario, but there is still great uncertainty about the issue. Ecosystems and forests will probably be seriously threatened if temperatures rise by 3 °C or more locally (2 °C worldwide). Droughts and heatwaves are likely to pose major health and water availability problems and could prove harmful for agriculture and the soil functions [2].

Final energy consumption by sector

Final energy consumption is a country’s gross apparent primary energy consumption after deduction of processing activities and energy loss. Overall final energy consumption dropped at an annual rate of 0,9 % between 2000 and 2007, and Belgium registered an overall decline of 2,9 % in 2006-2007.

In Belgium, buildings (residential and tertiary sector) are the number one final consumer of primary energy (31 %), followed by industry (29,9 %) and transport (22,7 %). Non-energy uses, which are an activity indicator for the petrochemical industry (naphtha, natural gas) also account for a substantial part of consumption (Figure 2).

The iron and steel sector experienced a 50 % drop in final consumption over the 1979-2007 period, while industry as a whole saw its final consumption decrease by 10,4 % over the same period. However, industry (excluding the iron and steel industries) consumption increased by 20,8 % over the same period.

Despite a 1,2 % drop in consumption in 2007, the transport sector is one of the sectors which has seen the most spectacular increases in final consumption over the 1979-2007 period (+60,4 %).

The final consumption of the residential (and equivalent) sector dropped by 10,7 % over the 1979-2007 period, whereas that of the non-energy sector increased by 29 %. Final business consumption rose by 14,1 % over the same period.

Figure 2: Evolution of final energy consumption in Belgium (consumption in 2007, in Ktoe (NCV), and average annual growth rate in % calculated for the period 2000-2007)

Source: FPS Economy, SMEs, Self-Employed and Energy - The energy market in 2007–2008 edition

For more details per region, see the following sources:

Walloon Region

http://etat.environnement.wallonie.be/index.php?mact=tbe,m787b7,default,1&m787b7what=fiches&m787b7alias=Bilan-energetique-de-la-Region-wallonne_&m787b7returnid=40&page=40

Flemish Region

http://www.milieurapport.be/Upload/main/2.3_Energy%20flows%20in%20Flande...

Brussels-Capital Region

- in French: http://www.bruxellesenvironnement.be/etatdelenvironnement

(see more particularly "Synthèse de l'état de l'environnement 2007-2008" p.22 in "Synthèse 2009" and "Bilans énergétiques" in "Etudes")

- in Dutch: http://www.leefmilieubrussel.be/staatvanhetleefmilieu

(see more particularly "Synthese van de staat van het leefmilieu 2007-2008" p.22 in "Synthese 2009" and "Energiebalans" in "Studies")

- in English: http://www.bruxellesenvironnement.be/etatdelenvironnement

(see more particularly "Summary report of the state of the environment 2007-2008" p.24 in "Synthesis 2009")

The primary energy consumption by fuel in Belgium.

Brussels-Capital Region

The Brussels-Capital Region is a city of more than one million inhabitants. The companies present in the region are mostly small and medium-sized and are responsible for only a small share (about 7 %) of regional GHG emissions. GHG’s are primarily emitted by heating in the residential and service industry (around 70 %) and road traffic (around 20 %). Heating is logically driven by climatic conditions and hence variations of emissions in Brussels are largely influenced by climatic variations.. The global variations shown in Figure 6 follow climatic variations.

GHG's in the Brussels-Capital Region are decreasing by almost 4% between 1990 and 2007. According to the burden sharing between the 3 Regions and the federal state (2004), the Brussels-Capital Region, where agricultural and industrial activity is limited, may not increase its GHG's emissions by more than 3.475% over the 2008-2012 period compared to 1990. Mobility problems and energy use for the heating of buildings, which are difficult to correct in the short run, were recognized as specific for the Region.

Since 2005, the emissions by buildings have tended to decline, whereas , according to estimates, the entire stock of occupied dwellings grew between 2005 and 2007 (+2,4% for the population) and the stock of offices increased in the same period. This development is also related to milder weather conditions during the same time period.

Large variations can be observed in smaller emitter sectors, for example a reduction (around 60 %) of fugitive emissions, linked to the improvement of the gas distribution network (reduction of leakage) and an increase in fluorinated gas emission from refrigeration activities (including transport) and air conditioning by a factor of around 20 (mainly due to the replacement of gases covered by the Montreal Protocol by gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol). As a result of this increase, these emissions of fluorinated gases are now close to 5 % of regional emissions.

The 2020 outlook

The ‘with measures’ scenario indicates the likely evolution of greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium under current policies and measures. This scenario includes all policies and measures adopted at the end of 2008 and described in the National Climate Plan of Belgium for the period 2009 – 2012^[1]. Under these policies, greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium (excluding LULUCF) are expected to increase from 145.7 Mton CO₂-eq in the base year to 150.8 Mton CO2-eq in 2020 (+3 %). Main factors explaining the significant increase after 2010 are the assumed increased electricity demand combined with the nuclear phase-out^[2] and increased production in industrial sectors producing process emissions.

Uncertainties regarding exogenous variables such as economic growth, climate conditions, electricity imports exist and their level influences the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, notably in the sectors covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

The ‘additional measures’ scenario presented in fifth national communication[3] under the UNFCCC showed an additional reduction effect of 11.3 Mton in 2020, reducing the total CO₂-eq in the ‘with additional measures’ scenario to 139.5 Mton CO2-eq.

With the approval of the National Allocation Plan for the period 2008–2012 under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Belgian Kyoto target is translated into a target for the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. This target equals 76.3 Mton CO₂-eq. The average non-ETS emissions level in the Kyoto-period is estimated to be 79.9 Mton CO₂-eq or 3.6 Mton CO₂-eq above the annual target. Belgium will make use of the Kyoto Mechanisms to cover these remaining emissions.

Beyond Kyoto

The Environmental Outlook 2030 for Flanders[3] investigates how the quality of the environment might develop in the Flemish Region and what impact policy could have on this. The future developments have been depicted using three policy scenarios with increasing levels of ambition:

The reference scenario (REF) investigates how far the current environmental policy reaches.

The Europe scenario (EUR) investigates what may be required to realise the European ambitions concerning climate change, air quality and water quality in the medium term. >

The visionary scenario (VISI) investigates how the environment may be safeguarded for present and future generations.>

In the reference scenario, the gross domestic energy consumption will be 13 % higher in 2030 than in 2006. The total emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by 12 % in 2020 and even by 31 % by 2030 compared to 2006. In 2006 the share of renewable energy in the gross end consumption was only 0.8 %. If the policy remains unchanged this will increase to 4 % by 2020 and 6 % by 2030. The use of renewable energy sources is beneficial both for the security of the supply and the emissions of greenhouse gasses.

In the Europe scenario, the gross domestic energy consumption continues to fluctuate around the 2006 level. As a result the Flemish Region cannot fulfil the energy efficiency target of a 20 % increase by 2020 in relation to an unchanged policy. Approximately 9 % of the gross end consumption of energy will be from renewable sources of energy by 2020. Belgium had a target of 13 % imposed by Europe. The share of green electricity in the electricity production will grow to 22 %. There is sufficient potential for renewable sources of energy in the Flemish Region to meet the demand. Transport increases the use of biofuels (including from the second generation) and reaches the target of 10 % renewable energy by 2020.

In the visionary scenario, the gross domestic energy consumption falls by 20.6 % by 2020 compared to the reference scenario. As a result, the Flemish Region meets the European energy efficiency target. The proportion of renewable energy in the gross end consumption stagnates at 9.2 % in 2020. The share increases to 26.4 % by 2030. The non-ETS sectors succeed in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 32 % by 2020 and halving them by 2030, compared to 1990. After 2020 the ETS-sectors also succeed in bringing their emissions, through national measures under the 2006 level by 21 %. This decrease must to a great extent be attributed to the energy sector.