Ukraine Mining Report 2010

Despite having a difficult year in 2009, our forecast for Ukraine’s mining industry is overall a positive one. At the end of 2009, the mining sector fell by 30.2% in real terms, but H110 saw the start of a recovery and by the end of the year, the analyst forecasts that the sector will have increased its real growth to 1% %, taking the industry’s value to US$5.95bn.

In order for the industry to keep improving over the next five years, however, it will need to focus on its coal industry as outdated, inefficient and dangerous mines are having a stagnant effect on much-needed production levels. Ukraine’s coal mining industry has seen some very negative press throughout this year. Accidents resulting in fatalities have forced the government to look at its safety standards and consider extensive redevelopment.

Indeed, the coal industry requires major investment and the government has responded by announcing funding of UAH47.3bn (US$5.98bn) by 2015. The authorities have also revived plans to privatise parts of the industry, which will bring in further capital. Privatisation is controversial in the Ukraine but there is growing acceptance in government circles that increased productivity requires financing and methods from the private sector. In total, the government measures are expected to increase the total coal output in 2015 by 54% from 64mn tonnes in 2009.

This year has also seen improvements in the iron ore sector. Ukraine is listed as being the sixth largest iron ore producer in the world and despite 2009 seeing the lowest production rates of steel since 2000, iron production has improved in H110. The Industrial Policy Ministry announced that iron ore concentrate production had risen to 26.378mn tonnes in May 2010, a 37% increase y-o-y. In March 2010, Ukraine exported 2.522mn tonnes of iron ore, this was an 8% increase y-o-y, but to offset this, Q110 saw the country import 620,600 tonnes of iron ore concentrate; almost double what it did in Q109. Forecasts with a much-needed improvements in the coal sector coupled with continued increased production levels in the iron sector the country’s mining industry will be on target for our predicted total value levels of US$13.63bn by 2014. However, China is expected to reduce its demand for iron this year and this threatens to reduce output levels in the short-term.

Despite being the site of the infamous Chernobyl disaster, Ukraine remains interested in nuclear power and the country has announced plans to construct 22 new nuclear power stations. Indeed, following news that a Russian bank had agreed to lend Ukraine US$2bn, in June 2010 it emerged that the funds will be used to build new nuclear reactors in the country. The news follows an improvement in Russia-Ukraine relations, with energy appearing to be a key area of co-operation.