Vietnam Petrochemicals information 2011

Although there are as yet no definite plans for ethylene capacity in Vietnam, BMI is confident that 2011 should see new petrochemicals project announcements that will include world-scale cracker capacity, according to its latest Vietnam Petrochemicals Annual Report. Establishing itself as a low-cost manufacturing hub, Vietnam is well positioned to become a player in the Asian petrochemicals industry with downstream processing and conversion industries, although compared to other Asian producers its product portfolio and capacities will remain small over the medium-term. Feedstock can be sourced from the new refineries being constructed in the country as well as imports from the Middle East, the origin of many potential investors in the Vietnamese petrochemicals industry. The new refinery at Dung Quat is now feeding an 150,000tpa PP plant which was completed in August 2010. The Nghi Son Refinery and petrochemicals joint venture between Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan, Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI), PetroVietnam and Mitsui Chemicals Incorporated is resuming its delayed plans to set up a complex with 150,000tpa propylene, 150,000tpa benzene, 150,000tpa PP and 480,000tpa paraxylene fed by a 200,000b/d refinery. Operations are now set to begin in 2014, one year behind schedule. Qatar Petroleum, Itochu and Siam Cement should go ahead with a proposed petrochemicals joint venture on Long Son Island. BMI believes this will include a cracker with capacity of around 1.1mn tpa ethylene, 550,000tpa of propylene and downstream VCM/PVC capacity, and 1.45mn tpa of polyolefins. Details are likely to be confirmed in 2011 and the complex is likely to come onstream in 2015 at the earliest. The revival of interest in Vietnam’s potential in petrochemicals is a turnaround from the situation in 2009 when SP Chemicals cancelled its US$1.5bn petrochemical complex with 800,000tpa ethylene due to gloomy market conditions. BMI believes that, until more fully integrated petrochemicals complexes come online, Vietnam will remain heavily dependent on imports for domestic demand. By 2010, it had no cracker units, and downstream units were relatively small, with most capacity concentrated in PP and PVC production. Even with the planned projects, Vietnam will not be a major producer to rival other Asian markets and the majority of output will be dedicated to meeting growing demand from domestic industry. With little current domestic petrochemicals activity, Vietnam is at the bottom of BMI’s Asia Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings with 30.5 points, down 0.6 points since 2010. The deterioration in the country’s score is related to negative risk associated with long-term external and financial factors. There is no likelihood of a significant increase in the country’s score and it is likely to remain at the bottom of the league until world-scale complexes come online. Risk factors also need to improve, particularly in relation to most areas of the economy and the government’s regulation of downstream industries.