Romania Tourism Report Q4 2010

Tourism Overview

In 2009, the Romanian tourism sector experienced a tough year, after very good performances in the previous two years, with the number of foreign visitors down by over 14% year-on-year (y-o-y). The EU accounted for 63% of total arrivals. Data for January-May 2010 show a continuing decline in arrivals, of 3.5% y-o-y in those five months, although the rate of decline has shown improvement during the course of the year. Data for the early months of 2010 also show a fall in the number of resident departures abroad, although at a slightly less steep rate than in 2009 when the number of visitors going abroad declined by about 11% y-o-y.

Hospitality

In the wake of a major deterioration in the hospitality sector in 2009, with tourism nights by foreign and domestic tourists in all accommodation establishments down 16% y-o-y, figures for the first five months of this year show an improving trend after a poor start. The total number of tourist nights in all accommodation establishments fell by over 3% y-o-y in January-May 2010, with nights by foreign and domestic tourists declining by about 1% and 4% y-o-y respectively. Foreign tourists accounted for nearly 21% of total overnight stays.

Forecast Scenario

This quarter, we maintain our view that there will be a slight recovery in visitor arrivals to Romania in 2010, with further acceleration in growth expected in 2011, to 7.2% y-o-y. This outlook is based mainly on economic recovery in Romania’s main source markets, including, most importantly, the eurozone, where growth is forecast at 1.1% and 1.4% – downgraded from 1.6% this quarter – in 2010 and 2011 respectively. However, in Hungary, an important source market, a relatively strong economic recovery is not expected until 2011. Although the leu looks set to remain under pressure against the euro in the short term, helping to boost the recovery in foreign tourism, BMI’s forecast of an appreciation trend from 2011 is likely to constrain the growth of domestic tourism over the forecast period to 2014. Tarom

The Romanian national flag carrier Tarom reported negative annual growth of almost -7% in passenger numbers last year but data for the first five months of 2010 show a sharp turnaround, with passenger traffic up by over 30% y-o-y to about 730,000 travellers.

Blue Air

After very strong growth in passenger numbers of about 30% y-o-y in 2008, Romanian low-cost airline Blue Air recorded growth in passenger traffic of 54% y-o-y in 2009, well above target, with 1.7mn customers. Starting in 2010, the airline offers tickets to destinations outside Europe in partnership with Blue Panorama Airlines from Italy.