Climate change means increases of temperatures, modifications of precipitation patterns and flow and an expected increase in the severity of weather-related natural disasters.

As it is mentioned in the recent EU white paper document “Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action”, these modifications will affect food supply, health, industry, transports and ecosystems integrity with significant economic and social impacts in some regions and sectors (agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy, tourism, infrastructure, human and animal and plant heath).

The severity of the impacts of climate change varies by regions.

According to the maps on the vulnerability, included in the IVth IPCC report drawn up in 2007, climate change in Romania by the end of this century will result in changes of the mean annual temperatures of 3-3.5ºC and a 10-20% decrease of the mean annual precipitations.

Since climate change means also the increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events, and as a consequence of severe floods and droughts experienced in recent years, climate change policy development will be very important for our country development.  

Climate change means mitigation and adaptation. 

In terms of mitigation, the Kyoto Protocol comitment to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases during 2008-2012 will be over-met mainly due to the restructuring and decline of industry.

As a Member State, Romania has been implementing the EU-ETS scheme with a contribution representing about 47% from its national total greenhouse gas emissions.

Located at the half distance from pole and equator (crossed by the 45° parallel),  Romania is characterized by a temperate continental climate.Between the south and the north of Romania there is a difference of about 3°C related to the the anual average temperature at the same altitude.

In comparison with the annual global average temperature increase of 0.6 ⁰Cin 1901-2000, in Romania the annual average increase  was of  0.3⁰Conly.During  1901-2006,  the increase was of 0.5⁰Ccompared to 0.75⁰Cat the global level (1906-2005).

There were thermal diferentiations between regions:more pronounced warming in south and east sides of the country (up to 0.8^oC at Bucharest-Filaret station, Constanţa and Roman) and insignificant warming in the Intra-Carpathian regions, except Baia Mare, where the effect of the anthropogenic activity led to a 0.7^oC increase (Figure 1).

The rainfall regime during 1901-2000, according to long series of observation data from 14 stations, has been characterized by a general tendancy of decreasing of the annual amount of precipitations. As of 1960, the review of short series of data from more metheorological stations revealed an intensification of the drought phenomenon in the south of our country. In compliance   with this observation, the maximum periods of lack of precipitations have increased in the south-west (winter) and west (summer) regions. 

The increased warming during summer in the south east of the country  asociated with a severe tendancy towards a water deficit  lead to the enhancement of the aridity of this region.In certain regions, during 1946-1999, it was observed an increase of the annual frequency of the very rainy  days (highest 12% daily quantities) and of the extremely rainy days  (highest 4% daily quantities). During 2000-2007 in Romania there were  two extreme pluviometric opposite events (the drought from 2000 and 2007 and the floods from 2005 and 2006). The winter between 2006-2007 was  the hottest winter ever occurred since observational measurements started in Romania, when pronounced deviations of maximum/minimum temperatures from the average multiannual regime persisted for long periods of time.

The longest drought periods in the 20^thcentury had a climax  reference year:1904, 1946, 1990. The most affected zone by the hydrological drought in the latest decades of the 20^thcentury and the beginning of the 21^stcentury was the south, with excessive aspects for Oltenia.

While there is difficult to assess clearly the impact of climate change on specific sectors, more scientists indicate the necessity to focus the research on climate change in order to improve understanding on the future scenarios and on economic, social and natural consequences of meteorological events including extremes.  

The reduction of GHG emissions requires the adoption of abatement measures in the EU-ETS and non-EU-ETS sectors.

For 2008-2012 the participation of installation in the implementation of the EU-ETS scheme is based on certificates acquired in compliance with the National Allocation Plan, document approved by the European Commission, and on open auction. This will determine the owner of the installations to refit and modernize urgently the existing technologies up to the European level, which requires important financial resources.

For the period mentioned above there are 229 participating installations which received free of charge 349 671 593 certificates.

Since the 8% reduction commitment for 2008-2012 will be met with certainty, no additional measures have been adopted excepting those required in terms of economic efficiency.   

Usually, the GHG emissions trend reflects the main trend in the economic development of the country. According the last GHG Emissions Inventory submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in April 2009, in 2007 the GHG emissions have dropped with 44.83% in comparison with 1989, considered the base year for our country in the development of climate change policy.

In Table 1, below, there are presented the values of different drivers indicators on climate change, for 2003-2007: the population, GDP, GDP growth, primary energy intensity, renewable electricity generation. The main drivers for GDP growth are the internal demand and especially, financial investments supported by governmental funds and by EU structural funds.

Table 2 presents the values of relevant pressures indicators, for 2003-2007: emissions and removals of GHGs, by gas, and by sectors..

As the international economy, our country is confronted with difficulties to sustain the economic growth and the current global economic and financial crisis poses the obligation to update the directions of development of our country to meet the EU targets included in the Lisbon Strategy, Sustainable Development Strategy and within the EU's climate and energy policy.

As it is mentioned in the COM(2009) 39 final Communication “Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen”, the current economic recession should be approached as an opportunity to address climate change and energy security through the transition to the low-carbon economy, securing growth and jobs and promoting sustainable development. The actions to combat the national crisis have to bring support to meet the climate targets.

For the climate change policy 2020 is an important milestone and our country has to join the European effort to meet the ambitious targets set in the EU’s climate change policy and recover successfully from the economic and financial crisis.

The 2020 EU’s targets for the climate and energy policy are related to:

- cutting greenhouse gases by at least 20% of 1990 levels (30% if other developed countries commit to comparable cuts);

- increasing use of renewables (wind, solar, biomass, etc) to 20% of total energy production (currently ± 8.5%);

- cutting energy consumption by 20% of projected 2020 levels - by improving energy efficiency.

The planned contributions of the EU-ETS sector to meet the reduction target and the implementation rules of this scheme for 2013-2020, render difficult the participation of many existing installations. 

According to the last relevant study, Table 3presents the aggregated data on GHG projections, by scenarios.

Due to uncertainties related to climate change there is difficult to assess the 2020 outlook. Post-Kyoto reduction commitments of GHG emissions and the adaptation measures will shape up the 2020 climate change picture.

The central environment authority enacted all required legislation to secure the enforcement of the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and EU climate change policy.

By the Governmental Decision 658/2006, the inter-ministerial body- the National Commission on Climate Change has been updated with the aim to unitary apply the provisions of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol.

A substantive potential still exists to further reduce the carbon intensity of the Romanian economy and to decouple and lower the GHG emissions growth trend from the GDP growth trend.  

The new climate change strategy will identify the measures to take advantage of this potential and orientate our development towards a low-carbon economy and energy efficiency.

The options include, among others, further fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements in the power sector as well as an increased share of renewable electricity production and further efficiency improvement in the end-use sectors of the economy.

In the non-energy sectors, methane emissions from agriculture and waste sectors can be further reduced, while the sink capacity can be increased with afforestations and reforestations.

Emissions from the transport sector will be reduced by implementing the European Community strategy to reduce CO₂emissions from passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.

Finally, N₂O emissions from the agriculture and industrial processes sectors can also be reducedby implementing various measures included within the EU agriculture policy.

Therefore, the objective of the Romanian Government is to continue implementing the existing and future EU policies and measures in order to reduce the carbon intensity of the Romanian economy and to stabilize the GHG emissions at current levels considering the potential economic growth.

Through consultations and workshops, the environmental authorities raised the awareness of economic operators on specific issues of the EU-ETS scheme.  

Following the recent extreme meteorological events which resulted in severe damages, the Ministry of Environment with the assistance of other ministries has drawn up a first national adaptation plan to climate change.

To improve this plan, our country has to have a clear view on its vulnerability, impact and economic aspects related to the climate change impact. To take decisions on how best to adapt, we need a better understanding and reliable data on assessing the vulnerability and impact and best practices on adaptation.

In this sense, as soon as the European Clearing House Mechanism will be operative, Romania will develop a close cooperation and will improve its institutional capacity.