The latest Oil & Gas US Report forecasts that the country will account for 89.12% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 67.45% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption will reach a forecast 21.15mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.43mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2014. North American regional oil production will average an estimated 10.470mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Canada will have made an estimated 31.06% contribution to 2010 regional oil supply, with its market share expected to be 32.55% by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 10.83mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.68mn b/d in 2010.

 

In terms of natural gas, North America will consume an estimated 751bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 799bcm targeted for 2014, representing 6.4% growth. Estimated production of 698bcm in 2010 should ease to 690bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 109bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 87.2%, while it contributed 79.1% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87%, with 79.7% of regional supply.

 

For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June- August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. Assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

 

For 2010, the assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level.

For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. US real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming 2.3% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.22mn b/d in 2010.

By 2014, we are forecasting output of 7.15mn b/d. Our estimate for 2010US oil demand is 18.87mn b/d, rebounding only slowly from the 2008/09 downturn. We now see US oil use hitting 19.10mn b/d by 2014, requiring crude imports of 11.95mn b/d.

 

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 5.06% fall in US oil production, with output peaking at 7.22mn b/d in 2010 before declining to 6.85mn b/d in 2019. Given that oil consumption is forecast to ease by 0.30%, imports rise from an estimated 11.66mn b/d in 2010 to 11.96mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 552bcm to a low of 540bcm in 2013, then rally to 570bcm by 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 655bcm to 737bcm, requiring net imports to rise to a 2017 peak of 175bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

 

Mining employs less than 1 % of the labor force and produces only about 3 % of the gross national product. It is, nevertheless, a vital activity, supplying the raw materials needed by many other industries. Despite abundant and varied production, the United States is totally or heavily dependent on imports for numerous minerals. Among them are mica, manganese, bauxite, cobalt, chromium, platinum, asbestos, tin, nickel, potassium, zinc, mercury, and tungsten. Petroleum and petroleum products are the largest and most costly of the nation's mineral imports.

Fuels, primarily petroleum, natural gas, and coal, account for about 85 % of the value of all minerals produced. The chief oil-supplying states are Texas, Alaska, Louisiana, California, and Oklahoma. Natural gas comes mainly from Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Coal is the nation's most abundant fossil fuel, with estimated reserves sufficient to last for centuries. Kentucky, West Virginia, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are the leading producers of bituminous coal. Anthracite coal is mined in small amounts in Pennsylvania. Uranium, for nuclear reactors, is also mined, principally in New Mexico, Wyoming, and Texas.

 

The chief metals mined in the United States, by value, include copper, gold, iron, magnesium, silver, zinc, lead, and molybdenum. In general, the greatest quantities of metallic minerals are mined in the southwestern and Rocky Mountain states. Iron ore comes mainly from Minnesota and Michigan. Bauxite, nickel, tin, and tungsten are also produced.

 

Stone, sand, gravel, and other minerals used in building construction are produced in most states. Phosphate rock, used in making fertilizers and chemicals, is mined mostly in Florida and North Carolina. Sulfur and salt, which are also used in making chemicals, come mainly from the Gulf states. Large amounts of potash and other minerals are also produced.

 

The United States depends to a great extent on fossil fuels for energy. Petroleum products alone account almost 40 % of all the energy consumed, natural gas for about 24 %, and coal for about 22 %. Petroleum is used chiefly to provide fuel for transportation and heating, while coal provides the bulk of the power for generating electricity. Natural gas is consumed mainly by households for heating and cooking and by industrial users.

 

Hydroelectric, nuclear, geothermal, and solar power together provide about 26 % of the nation's energy. These energy sources are primarily used to generate electricity. Hydroelectric power is produced and used most extensively in the West and Pacific Northwest and in the Southeast. Nuclear power plants are scattered throughout the nation, but are most numerous east of the Mississippi. Solar and wind power are minor energy sources.