United Kingdom: United Kingdom Energy Profile 2012
2012/04/05
United Kingdom Energy Profile 2012
The iron ore is now largely depleted, and what remains is mostly of low grade, making large imports necessary. Coal, however, remains an abundant and valuable resource and is a major energy source in Britain. Many of the old collieries (coal mines) have been either closed or modernized since the industry was nationalized in 1947, and large new ones have been opened. With a lot of coal and rich iron-ore deposits provided the foundation for the iron and steel industry and aided U.K in its early industrialization.
Natural gas production is abundant from the floor of the North Sea began in 1967 and was followed by a petroleum boom, which began in 1974. UK was totally dependent on imports for these fuels. The total reserves of UK North Sea oil and gas are enormous.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region is forecast to consume an estimated 419.5bcm in 2010, with demand of 458.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 259.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 156.6bcm to some 199.1bcm by the end of the period. The UK’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 21.21%, while it is expected to contribute 23.14% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 21.61%, with production accounting for 21.23% of the regional market.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made from June-August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. Assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase on the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts UK real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2010 and 2.3% average annual growth in 2010-2014. We are currently assuming 1.43mn b/d of oil output in 2010. By 2014, UK oil production is unlikely to be much above 1mn b/d. Oil consumption is expected to have reached 1.64mn b/d by 2014, providing a net crude import requirement of at least 631,000b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in UK oil production of 42.5%, with output slipping steadily to 0.82mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to decrease by 1.5%, imports should rise from an estimated 0.19mn b/d to 0.78mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 60bcm to 45bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 89bcm to 100bcm, requiring imports reaching 55bcm, largely in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The mineral production, in terms of value, consists largely of stone, sand, and gravel for construction purposes and clays for pottery and ceramics, and tin. Potash, salt, and small amounts of non-ferrous metal ores (in addition to tin) are also produced.
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