Tajikistan Agriculture Profile 2012

Reference Date: 22-May-2011

Uncertain prospects for 2011 cereal crops

Below average rains from October to March are likely to have resulted in a decline of plantings and yields of the winter rainfed cereal crops, accounting for 55 percent of the area sown to winter cereals. Improved precipitation in April-May 2011 benefited sowing of spring cereal crops and development of earlier planted crops. Above average temperatures in the spring have also resulted in higher than usual insect infestation. The final outcome of this year’s cropping season will crucially depend on precipitation in the next few weeks. However, early forecasts point to a decline of the 2011 aggregate cereal production from the bumper levels of the past two years. This year, the wheat crop was mainly damaged from a dry and hot spring as well as insects.

Cereal imports remain high despite two consecutive bumper crops

Despite well above average cereal outputs in 2009 and 2010 wheat imports (representing the bulk of cereal imports) in the 2010/11 marketing year have remained at high levels reflecting increased demand, particularly for feed. Imports still account for 51 percent of the cereal consumption requirements of the country.

Food prices stabilized at record levels in April

Prices of wheat flour, which had been on a steady increase since mid-2010 and reached record levels in March, remained stable or marginally declined in April. The stabilization of wheat flour prices is due to the release of state reserves in recent months. At its current levels, the national average price of wheat flour is 50 percent higher than a year earlier. However, prices of subsidized bread have remained virtually unchanged from their levels in April 2010. Prices of potatoes, another main staple in the country, are also at record levels. Prices of other foods such as sugar, beef, mutton, onion have also risen. Overall, the high level of prices reflects trends in the international markets and higher fuel prices.

Increased staple food prices, coupled with high levels of poverty (45 percent) are resulting in the deterioration of food security in the country. The food situation is particularly serious for households not cultivating crops and living in remote areas of the Rasht and Zarafshan Valleys.

Although the government has announced an expedited land reform program, many Soviet-era state farms still existed in 2006, and the state retains control of production and harvesting on privatized farms. Privatization of cotton farms has been especially slow, and unresolved debts of cotton farmers remained a problem in 2006. In the early 2000s, the major crops were cotton (which occupied one-third of arable land in 2004 but decreased after that date), cereals (mainly wheat), potatoes, vegetables (mainly onions and tomatoes), fruits, and rice. More than 80 percent of the 8,800 square kilometers of land in use for agriculture depends on irrigation. Tajikistan must import grain from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Uncertain prospects for 2011 cereal crops

Below average rains from October to March are likely to have resulted in a decline of plantings and yields of the winter rainfed cereal crops, accounting for 55 percent of the area sown to winter cereals. Improved precipitation in April-May 2011 benefited sowing of spring cereal crops and development of earlier planted crops. Above average temperatures in the spring have also resulted in higher than usual insect infestation. The final outcome of this year’s cropping season will crucially depend on precipitation in the next few weeks. However, early forecasts point to a decline of the 2011 aggregate cereal production from the bumper levels of the past two years. This year, the wheat crop was mainly damaged from a dry and hot spring as well as insects.

Cereal imports remain high despite two consecutive bumper crops

Despite well above average cereal outputs in 2009 and 2010 wheat imports (representing the bulk of cereal imports) in the 2010/11 marketing year have remained at high levels reflecting increased demand, particularly for feed. Imports still account for 51 percent of the cereal consumption requirements of the country.

Food prices stabilized at record levels in April

Prices of wheat flour, which had been on a steady increase since mid-2010 and reached record levels in March, remained stable or marginally declined in April. The stabilization of wheat flour prices is due to the release of state reserves in recent months. At its current levels, the national average price of wheat flour is 50 percent higher than a year earlier. However, prices of subsidized bread have remained virtually unchanged from their levels in April 2010. Prices of potatoes, another main staple in the country, are also at record levels. Prices of other foods such as sugar, beef, mutton, onion have also risen. Overall, the high level of prices reflects trends in the international markets and higher fuel prices.

Increased staple food prices, coupled with high levels of poverty (45 percent) are resulting in the deterioration of food security in the country. The food situation is particularly serious for households not cultivating crops and living in remote areas of the Rasht and Zarafshan Valleys.

08/12/2010  In 2010 cereal production declined slightly from last year’s record

In 2010, generally good precipitation and adequate soil moisture conditions favoured crops during the growing season, but floods and damages caused to irrigation infrastructure by a severe earthquake in January had a negative impact on crop development in affected areas. Cereal production in 2010 dropped from the previous year record level by some 5 percent but remained well above the five-year average.

Cereal imports remain large despite better crops in recent years

At national level, the significant increase in cereal output in 2009 resulted in a satisfactory food supply situation and an increase in stocks. Wheat imports (representing the bulk of cereal imports) declined in 2009/10 marketing year reflecting the higher crop output, but still covered about 50 percent of domestic utilization. In 2010/11 wheat imports are expected to increase (by around 10 percent) reflecting the lower 2010 domestic output.

Recent food prices increases put at risk the improved food security

According to the August 2010 WFP food security assessment, there has been an improvement in the overall food security situation since the previous survey in February 2010, with 7 percent (down from 10 percent) of the households interviewed classified as severely food insecure and 16 percent moderately food insecure (decreased from 21 percent). Rural households benefited from the good 2009 harvest, better livestock health and breeding, higher remittances and seasonal jobs.

However, increasing staple food prices represent the main threat to households’ food security. In recent months, the price of wheat flour has increased by almost 30 percent and prices of other foods such as sugar, beef, mutton, potato, onion have also risen. High prices are mainly due to external factors: speculation of local traders due to recent wheat export ban in Russia, and reduced harvest in Kazakhstan and increase in fuel prices.