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South Korea: South Korea Energy Profile 2012

2012/04/04

South Korea Energy Profile 2012

South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010

This latest Oil & Gas South Korea Report forecasts that the nation will account for 7.94% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. South Korea’s estimated share of regional gas consumption in 2010 is 6.95%, while its share of production is minimal. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.14%.

With a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.

South Korean real GDP is forecast to increase by 5.5% in 2010, followed by average annual growth of 4.2% in 2010-2014. Several South Korean oil companies, including state interests, are engaged in securing international upstream production, but the domestic market offers little potential for oil or gas. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by no more than 1% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 2.40mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is forecast to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 34.5bcm to 38.4bcm by 2014, with the bulk of the fuel being imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Between 2010 and 2019, forecasting an increase in South Korea’s oil consumption from an estimated 2.35mn b/d to 2.40mn b/d (+1.95%), with the country’s refining capacity rising from 2.71mn b/d to 2.85mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 34.5bcm in 2010 to a possible 41.6bcm by 2019, met largely by LNG imports.