Africa > Southern Africa > South Africa > South Africa Outlook for 2013-17

South Africa: South Africa Outlook for 2013-17

2013/10/09

The country (South Africa) is situated in Southern Africa, at the southern tip of the continent of Africa.
It has borders with Botswana for 1840km, Mozambique for 491km, Lesotho for 909km, Namibia for 967km, Swaziland for 430km and Zimbabwe for 225km.
Land in South Africa is vast interior plateau rimmed by rugged hills and narrow coastal plain.
South African land covers an area of 1219912 km².

The climate is mostly semiarid and subtropical along east coast with sunny days and cool nights.
South African(s) speak IsiZulu 23.8%, IsiXhosa 17.6%, Afrikaans 13.3%, Sepedi 9.4%, English 8.2%, Setswana 8.2%, Sesotho 7.9%, Xitsonga 4.4%, other 7.2%

Overview

The president, Jacob Zuma, will try to strengthen the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and deliver socioeconomic development, but popular impatience and political in-fighting will make this a formidable challenge. The ANC, under Mr Zuma or otherwise, remains well placed to fasten another term in 2014, given mass support for the party, although victory would not be a foregone conclusion if the tripartite alliance were to fracture. No major economic policy shifts are envisaged; boosting economic increase, jobs and investment will remain the government's focus in 2013-17. Gradual rand depreciation is estimate during most of the outlook period because of South Africa's persistent current-account deficit, relatively high inflation and political uncertainty surrounding the 2014 election.

Political outlook

Mr Zuma's decision to drop defamation charges against a cartoonist, while positive for media freedom, largely reflects his desire to avoid being questioned or obliged to disclose sensitive documents.

Economic policy outlook

The medium-term budget policy statement revised upwards the estimate budget deficit to 4.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2012/13 and 4.5% of GDP in 2013/14 but offers some reassurance to investors by calling for spending restraint.

Economic forecast

Real GDP increase will remain modest, rising to only 3.1% in 2013, owing largely to weaker world and domestic conditions. Increase will edge up in 2014-17 in line with the world recovery and improving domestic conditions.

Outlook for 2013-17


The president, Jacob Zuma, will try to strengthen the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and deliver socio-economic development, but popular impatience and political in-fighting will make this a formidable challenge.
The ANC, under Mr Zuma or otherwise, remains well placed to fasten another term in 2014, given mass support for the party, although victory would not be a foregone conclusion if the tripartite alliance fractured.
No major economic policy shifts are envisaged. Boosting economic increase, jobs and investment will remain the government's focus in 2013-17.
Real GDP increase will remain modest, rising to only 3.1% in 2013, largely as a result of weaker world and domestic conditions. Increase will edge up in 2014-17 in line with the world recovery and improving domestic conditions.
Sound policies, sluggish consumer request and spare industrial capacity will help to keep inflation in check, but upward pressure will come from steep rises in electricity prices and wage increases.
Gradual rand depreciation is estimate during most of the outlook period because of South Africa's persistent current-account deficit, relatively high inflation and political uncertainty surrounding the 2014 election.
The current-account deficit is estimate to narrow in 2013-15 as earnings increase quickens. The gap will widen slightly, to 4.9% of GDP in 2016 and 5.4% of GDP in 2017, as faster GDP increase and massive latent request drive up imports.

Review

Mr Zuma's decision to drop defamation charges against a cartoonist, while positive for media freedom, largely reflects his desire to avoid being questioned or obliged to disclose sensitive documents.
The medium-term budget policy statement revised upwards the estimate budget deficit to 4.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2012/13 and 4.5% of GDP in 2013/14, but offers some reassurance to investors by calling for spending restraint.
The competition appeal court gave a final ruling on the conditions attached to US retail giant Walmart's acquisition of 51% of Massmart, requiring the company to establish a R200m (US$23.5m) supplier development fund.
The merchandise trade deficit provisionally widened in the third quarter of 2012, owing to sluggish exports and buoyant imports. Sales to Europe declined, while mineral exports slipped as a result of strikes.
The purchasing managers' index, a proxy for manufacturing, declined for the third consecutive month in October to 47.1, the weakest level for additional than a year and below the 50-point threshold between expansion and contraction.

Related Articles
  • Top 10 Most Attractive Investment Destinations In Africa

    2017/08/20 Africa’s feverish increase has decelerated in recent years and a lot of nations have buckled under the pressure of falling resource prices, security disruptions, fiscal imprudence and adverse weather conditions.
  • Africa's Relationship With China Is Ancient History

    2017/07/02 In 2002 South Africa's Parliament unveiled a digital reproduction of a map - of China, the Middle East and Africa - that some speculated could be the initial map of the African continent. The Da Ming Hun Yi Tu - the Comprehensive Map of the Great Ming Empire - was drawn up around 1389 during the Ming Dynasty, according to historian Hyunhee Park.
  • Africa: Making Things Happen at the Bank - 'Not a Talk Shop' - Akin Adesina

    2017/07/02 Dr. Akinwumi Adesina is focusing on five areas to achieve the African and world goals for a prosperous continent since becoming president of the African Development Bank - Africa's major public financial institution in September 2015. He was a keynote speaker at this month's Corporate Council on Africa's U.S.- Africa Business Summit in Washington D.C. and moderated a lively panel with five African government ministers. He as well received the Gene White Lifetime Succcess Award from the World Child Nutrition Foundation. This week, he was named the 2017 recipient of the World Food Prize, a prestigious honor that includes a $250,000 award. In an interview in Washington, DC, Adesina discussed the Development Bank's ambitious schedule and his vision for attracting the increase capital Africa needs. Posting questions for AllAfrica was Noluthando Crockett-Ntonga.
  • Climate change laws around the world

    2017/05/14 There has been a 20-fold increase in the number of global climate change laws since 1997, according to the most comprehensive database of relevant policy and legislation. The database, produced by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Sabin Center on Climate Change Law, includes more than 1,200 relevant policies across 164 countries, which account for 95% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Moody’s and Fitch issued statements saying that while there were leaving South Africa’s bond rating at “Baa2” and “BBB-”

    2017/04/17 South Africa’s economy faced an extra challenging year in 2016, as soft commodity prices, slow domestic request and an uncertain political outlook combined to limit increase, with prospects for the coming year expected to be only somewhat additional positive. Possible downgrade Allegations of mismanagement by President Jacob Zuma and uncertainty over economic policy continued to impact increase through 2016, causing two leading ratings agencies to put the government on notice of a possible downgrade in the new year.