Slovenia Energy Profile 2012

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 638.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Slovenia has no significant share of regional gas consumption or production.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. Assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

For 2010, the assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Slovenian real GDP is assumed to rise by 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.9% in 2010-2014. Beyond the expected weakness of 2009/2010, oil consumption growth is forecast at an annual rate of 3%, reaching 71,000b/d by 2014. Gas consumption reached an estimated 1.0bcm in 2009, with up to 0.4bcm being produced from domestic sources. Demand is expected to have reached 1.3bcm by 2014, with domestic production potentially down to 0.2bcm and imports totalling 1.1bcm.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovenian oil consumption of 34.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 61,000b/d to 82,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 1.0bcm to 1.7bcm by 2019, met largely by imports of 1.6bcm.