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slovakia: Slovakia Energy Profile 2012

2012/04/04

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Slovakia Energy Profile 2012

Slovakia’s mining sector was worth US$503mn in 2009, contributing only 0.52% of GDP, down from US$552mn and 0.59% in 2008, representing a significant shrinkage of 10.57%, according to the analysts figures. The industry had clocked up 18.35% real growth in 2008. Demand for mining products fell in Europe due to the global recession, which had a serious impact both on the domestic economy and those of major export partners. Sector employment fell significantly, by 17.54% to 11,710, following a drop of 13.41% in 2008.

Mining remains a relatively minor concern in Slovakia and it is certainly not a major regional mining centre like Ukraine and Poland. There is not a great deal of scope for scalability and cost advantages have been eroded somewhat by the country’s rising incomes and the effects of EU accession. Nonetheless, for incumbents such as EMED and Slovaco, there will be continuing opportunities. EMED expects that its concessions in Slovakia has ‘potential to add major value’, according to Mining Journal.

A potential regulatory setback for the sector occurred in March 2009, with changes to Slovakia’s mining laws, as reported by Uranium News. The country’s parliament agreed to amendments that will give local communities and municipal and regional authorities more power to control geological research and the mining of uranium. The changes came after a number of large public petitions against uranium mining in the country.

While environmental organisation Greenpeace noted that the new law did not ban uranium mining outright, it said that ‘significant powers’ had been granted to the local and regional authorities in the process of gaining mining permits, and that all 41 municipal governments in areas where uranium mining has been proposed have declared their opposition to the mining. It concluded that ‘there’s an excellent chance that Slovakia’s uranium will never see the light of day’. After several years in which the regulatory environment has improved for private sector and foreign investors in the sector, the changes could strike a significant blow.

Uranium mining is a relatively fledging concern in Slovakia, with explorations ongoing. Slovakia seems potentially well-placed to benefit from rising demand for uranium, particularly from its EU partners, which are increasingly looking to diversify their supply away from Russia. Worldwide demand for the mineral is expected to increase 33% between 2010 and 2020, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). Production from mines currently only covers 70% of power station demand, the remainder coming from sources such as ex-military material.

Elsewhere, safety issues have also been raised, particularly after an explosion at a coal mine in August 2009 which killed 20 workers, as reported by UPI. With substantial caveats, sector players are likely to be more confident of the outlook than was the case in 2009. A June report from Bloomberg suggested that Slovak assets could rise as political parties committed to pro-investment reforms and cutting the budget deficit look to take power in the aftermath of the country’s election.

But overall, the analyst maintains its expectations of a low-growth outlook for the future. We forecast that the industry will reach a value of US$589mn by 2014 with annual growth averaging just 1.17%. Sector employment will continue to decline, to 7,270 by the end of the forecast period. Pre-crisis value levels may not be achieved until 2013. For 2010, we expect growth of 0.54% with the sector reaching a value of US$511mn.