Saudi Arabia Energy Profile 2012

We expect that the country accounts for 38.81% of the Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2015 while providing a dominant 38.36% of supply. Middle East oil use regional 4.98mn b / d in 2001 is forecast at 7.40mn b / d in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b / d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.70mn b / d in 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b / d in 2001 and is expected to average 24.96mn b / d in 2010. After an estimated 25.22mn b / d in 2011, it is expected to rise to 27.24mn b / d in 2015. Oil exports are increasing because the demand growth is lagging behind the pace of expansion of supply. In 2001, the region has been the export of an average 17.85mn b / d. This will be facilitated for a total estimated 17.55mn b / d in 2010 and should reach 18.54mn b / d in 2015. Iraq has the greatest potential for export growth, followed by Qatar.

Regarding natural gas, the region should consume a 391bcm estimated in 2010 at the request of 483bcm by 2015, representing growth of 23.7%. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010 should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of the period. Saudi Arabia is expected to consume approximately 20.12% of the gas in the region in 2010, with its market share would be 18.43% in 2015. It will contribute an estimated 16.84%, 2010 regional gas production and may represent 14.51% of supply by 2015.

For 2010 as a whole, we assume an OPEC basket price averaged U.S. $ 77.00/bbl (+26.5% yoy). The 2010 U.S. WTI is now at U.S. $ 79.16/bbl. We are assuming an OPEC basket price of U.S. $ 80.00/bbl in 2011, WTI averaged U.S. $ 82.25, U.S. $ 82.46/bbl Brent, Urals provide approximately U.S. $ 81.21 and an average of U.S. Dubai $ 80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging U.S. $ 85.00/bbl, WTI delivery to approximately U.S. $ 87.40 and Brent at U.S. $ 87.60/bbl. From 2013, we use an average price of OPEC to U.S. $ 90.00/bbl.

Our assumption for the price of gasoline is a global average U.S. $ 87.49/bbl, representing a year on year (yoy) increase of 24.7%. Predictions of global diesel at an average price of U.S. $ 88.00/bbl, probably peaked in December 2010 to over U.S. $ 95/bbl. The full year result represents an increase of 27.6% over 2009. For 2010, the annual level jet price should be U.S. $ 89.50/bbl compared with U.S. $ 70.66/bbl in 2009. We put the average price of naphtha in 2010 U.S. $ 77.65/bbl, up nearly 31% over the previous year.

We expect Saudi Arabia real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2010 and 3.3% average annual GDP growth expected from 2010 to 2015. We expect oil demand to increase from an estimated 2.79mn b / d in 2010 to 3.38mn b / d by 2015, representing up to 3.0% annual growth beyond 2009 and are greatly to our economic assumptions. State-owned Saudi Aramco is wholly responsible for production of oil and liquids, which should increase from an estimated 9.88mn b / d in 2010 to 10.45mn b / d in 2015. There is no foreign participation in the upstream petroleum sector, although international oil companies (ICC) may have a role in future development and gas field are major players in the refining and petrochemicals. Gas production should reach 89bcm in 2015 from an estimated 79bcm in 2010. Consumption should be the trend, leaving Saudi Arabia without having to import or export potential during the period.

Between 2010 and 2020, we expect increased production of Saudi Arabian oil 15.4%, with volumes rising steadily to 11.40mn b / d by the end of the forecast period of 10 years. Oil consumption is expected to increase by 40.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 3.91mn b / d in 2020. Gas production should rise by an estimated 79bcm 126bcm by the end of the period. demand growth of 60.7% from 2010 to 2020 provide a balanced market throughout the period.

News and Reports:

Saudi turns to nuclear in place of fossil fuel (24/1/2011)