Qatar Energy Profile 2012

In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 5.89% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 7.19% by 2014. It is set to have contributed an estimated28.93% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 28.36% of supply.

In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 5.89% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 7.19% by 2014. It is set to have contributed an estimated28.93% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 28.36% of supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

For 2010, the assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Qatar’s real GDP is assumed to have risen by 15.1% in 2010, with average annual growth of 8.2% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 218,000b/d in 2010 to 275,000b/d in 2014. State-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP) negotiates exploration and production (E&P) agreements, shares in upstream projects, and has 50% of oil and 40% of gas production. It has signed agreements with many of the leading international oil companies (IOCs), particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.65mn b/d of 2010 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.85mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 167bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 135bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 23bcm to 35bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing for exports of 132bcm.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari oil and gas liquids production of 34.2%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.18mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 69.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 368,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 135bcm to 190bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 127%, this provides an export capability rising from an estimated 112bcm to 137bcm.