Mexico Agriculture Profile 2012

Reference Date: 20-May-2011

Reduced production of maize in 2011

Harvest of the 2011 autumn-winter maize season that represents 30 percent of the annual production is underway. The frosts in February led to substantial crop losses, particularly in the large producing areas of Sonora and Sinaloa. On a national level, it is estimated that 40 percent of the sown area was lost. Production should reach a level of 3.3 million tonnes, substantially lower than the level of last year.

Sowing of the main 2011 spring-summer maize season has begun. The area sown for this season is estimated to be around the same as that for 2010 but more rainfall is needed in the next few weeks after the irregular and below-average rainfall last month. Assuming normal weather conditions during the season, total maize production (secondary and main harvests) is tentatively forecast to be 21.3 million tonnes, 5 percent lower than that of the year before as a result of the reduced autumn-winter harvest.

Favourable prospects for wheat in 2011

Harvesting of wheat of the 2011 autumn-winter crop season that represents 90 percent of the annual production is underway. The dry weather and above-average temperatures in recent months in the northeastern producing areas have favoured the development of the grain and its ripening. It is forecast that total wheat production in 2011 (main and secondary seasons) will be around 4 million tonnes, around 10 percent above 2010 and above the average in the last five years.

Prices of white maize at record levels

Prices of white maize have increased by around 40 percent since the beginning of the year, and in May, white maize in the markets of Mexico City was quoted at 5 500 Mexican pesos per tonne. The increase in the prices of maize is due to the crop losses from the frosts in February and the increasing trend of prices in the international market. The country imports 9 million tonnes of maize per year. In addition, prices of maize tortillas, a basic food product in the local diet, have increased since January 2011 and in May were 15 percent higher than a year ago.

08/12/2010  Main season maize is currently being harvested
The 2010 summer maize harvest is in progress and the prospects are good. Initial forecasts suggest a 2010 aggregate output (including the winter harvest which has already been gathered in) will be 4 percent above the high 2009 levels. These bright prospects are due to generally favourable weather conditions during the agricultural season. In most production areas in the south moderate rainfall in August and September benefited maize and other summer crops after several weeks of dry weather. In October the waning of the tropical storms reduced rainfall levels virtually throughout the whole country except for the southern coast on the Gulf of Veracruz and the Yucatán peninsula, where moderate to heavy rain had been falling since mid-May. The generally dry weather in October helped crops to mature at the beginning of the summer maize harvesting operations.

Sowing of the 2010/11 season wheat is in progress
The wheat for the 2010/11 harvest is currently being sown in the irrigated areas of the Northeast (Sonora and Sinaloa) under dry weather conditions, which are beneficial to working in the fields.

Aggregate wheat production in 2010 (the main winter and the secondary summer seasons) is estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, 10 percent below 2009’s record levels, but still above the average of the past five years.

Bean prices are still above the level of two years ago
The prices of the black beans have fallen since the beginning of 2010 but they are still far higher than two years ago. In the second week of November on the Mexico City market black bean prices were around MXN 12.65/kg, 30 percent above November 2008 levels.

White maize wholesale prices have remained stable for almost 2 years.