Lebanon Government Profile 2012

Policy Trends

Despite the formation of a new government in mid-June, there is unlikely to be significant progress with long-stalled economic reforms. Fiscal reform, particularly expanding revenue collection, is vital to reducing the structural deficit (a result largely of the high cost of servicing the massive public debt incurred after the Lebanese civil war).
However, corruption and patronage permeate the political system, and many politicians have their own interests in maintaining a bloated public sector. The electricity sector is also in dire need of reform as the country continues to suffer from power shortages, particularly in the summer months. Privatising state enterprises will remain a sensitive issue owing to ideological differences and vested interests, as well as to questions about the likely transparency of any sales of state assets.
Long-discussed plans to sell the two state-owned mobile-phone operators and restructure the heavily subsidised state-owned electricity provider, Electricite du Liban, will be deferred beyond 2012. The government will try to address Lebanon’s energy shortcomings by issuing licences for natural gas exploration.

However, the government has provided no clear objectives or timeframes for reforming the energy or telecoms sectors.

Political Stability

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Lebanon’s political situation to remain fractious in 2011-12. In June the prime minister, Najib Mikati, was finally able to appoint a government after five months of political wrangling and negotiations. The government is largely composed of members of “March 8th”, a faction supported by Iran and Syria, that withdrew support for a government led by Saad al-Hariri and “March 14th”, a bloc supported by the US, Saudi Arabia and France, in January 2011. Relations between the two groups are influenced by changing relations between these external powerbrokers. Mr Mikati’s cabinet reflects the resurgent role of Syria in Lebanese politics, with its heavy weighting to members who support Syrian influence. Political and economic decision-making will continue to be blocked despite the government’s more cohesive appearance, as patronage networks and political horse-trading mean that the new ministers will be wary of exposing themselves by actively calling for serious reforms.

Election Watch

We do not expect early elections to be called as both the March 8th and March 14th factions would be unwilling to risk losing their nearly even allocations in parliament. The main parties suffered some losses in the May 2010 local elections, which also saw the re-emergence of a number of non-aligned
figures, although these changes are unlikely to have a significant impact on national politics. The next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2013.

Government

Lebanon is a republic governed under a constitution promulgated in 1926, as amended. The constitution was substantially revised in 1990.

Executive

The president of Lebanon is elected by the legislature for six years and may not serve two successive terms. In consultation with the National Assembly, the president designates the prime minister and other cabinet ministers. The president must be a Maronite Christian, and the prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim. Nearly all executive decisions require the signature of both the president, who is head of state, and the prime minister, who heads the government.

Legislature

Under the revised constitution, the unicameral National Assembly has 128 members elected by universal suffrage. The speaker of the assembly is always a Shiite Muslim. Legislative seats are divided equally between Christians and Muslims. This system, strengthened by a tradition of rallying around strong leaders rather than platforms, has inhibited development of Western-style political parties. During August and September 1992, Lebanon held its first legislative elections in 20 years.

Judiciary

Lebanon has no single supreme court. Under the constitution of the country, a council of state hears administrative cases, and a five-member special court of justice deals with matters of state security. The judicial system also includes single-judge courts of first instance, three-judge courts of appeal, and courts of cassation. Religious courts have jurisdiction over personal matters such as marriages, deaths, and inheritances.

Local Government

In theory, Lebanon is divided into five governorates, each administered by a governor, who represents the central government. In practice, political and religious militias exercise most local government functions in the regions they control, and the central government has little influence. Throughout the late 1980s much of Bayrut was under the control of Syrian armed forces. In many villages, local elders and clan members wield considerable influence.