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Italy: Italy Energy Profile

2010/11/22

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 Italy Energy Profile

Plants that burn oil provide most of Italy's electric power. Italy depends heavily on other countries for its energy supply, with imported petroleum providing more than half the country’s energy. Libya and Iran are Italy's largest suppliers of crude oil. Italians also rely heavily on natural gas for heating and other needs, and large amounts of natural gas from the Po Valley are piped into the cities of the north.

Mineral resources are also meager, and demands for virtually all metals, nonmetals, and fuels are met largely through imports. Most of Italy's mineral deposits are found on the islands of Sicily and Sardinia and in the regions of Tuscany, Lombardy, and Piedmont in the north-central and northwestern parts of the peninsula.Natural gas and petroleum, both discovered since World War II, are Italy's most valuable mineral resources. Natural gas comes mainly from the Po Valley and the floor of the Adriatic Sea; petroleum from Sicily and the south. Marble from Carrara is used throughout the world. The country also produces large quantities of marble and granite. Other important minerals mined in Italy include feldspar, pumice, and sulfur.

Italy Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010

The forecasts for Italy will account for 12.41% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 4.34% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption will average an estimated 13.10mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to recover to around 13.29mn b/d by 2014.

Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 will average an estimated 4.45mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.69mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports will be an estimated 8.65mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to hit 9.60mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.

As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 419.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 458.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 259.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 156.6bcm to some 199.1bcm by the end of the period. Italy’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 17.64%, while it contributed around 2.89% to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 17.74%, with a 2.70% contribution to regional supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June-August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

For 2010, the assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level.

Italian real GDP is assumed to rise by 1.3% in 2010. Assuming 1.6% average annual growth in 2010-2014. By 2014, we expect to see the country consuming 1.65mn b/d of oil. A rise in near-term domestic oil production is also expected. Assuming oil production of 160,000b/d in 2014, but imports are set to reach 1.49mn b/d. Use of gas in power generation is the key to demand growth and consumption looks set to reach 81.3bcm by 2014. Imports are likely to be 74.3bcm at this stage.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Italian oil production of 4.4%, with output peaking at 165,000b/d in 2013 before slipping to 110,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 0.93%, imports can also be expected to rise from an estimated 1.50mn b/d in 2010 to 1.52mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 74.0bcm to 89.7bcm by 2019. Production of an estimated 7.5bcm in 2010 is expected to fall to 6.0bcm by 2019, requiring imports up from 66.5bcm to 83.7bcm, in the form of pipeline gas and LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.