Middle East > Iran > Iran Transportation Profile 2012

Iran: Iran Transportation Profile 2012

2012/03/14

          更多  

 

 

 

Iran Transportation Profile 2012

Shipping Report Q4 2010

In our view neither a projected slowdown in global box volumes nor current sanctions will slow growth in Iran's container shipping sector.

The country's main container port Bandar Abbas, defied the downturn in 2009, posting a year-on-year (yo- y) increase in box volumes of 10% to reach 2.2mn TEU. We project further growth over the mid term with the box throughput at the facility projected to pass the 3mn TEU milestone in 2014. Sanctions are currently concentrated toward Iran's oil production and gasoline exports, but we fear that with the spot light being shone on Iran's state owned shipping company, Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL) container operations of the firm could be hit with more stop and searches of IRISL's vessels on the cards.

The company has already demonstrated its ability to get round previous sanctions and Iran has already fired a warning shot that if any of its ships are searched it will respond in kind. However, further sanctions could lead to downside potential to our trade and port throughput forecasts for Iran.

Iran Container Shipping Key Views:

  • - Box throughput at Iran's main container port managed to continue growing in the downturn, highlighting the strength of box-shipping demand
  • - Large young consumer base spurring container demand
  • - Sanctions offer obvious downside risk to lines operating in Iran's container shipping sector
  • - Port development likely to become reliant on domestic firms as international companies are warned off

While we holds a global container shipping view that the container sector's recovery will slow in H210, we believe that Iran is fairly well insulated from this threat and that box throughput at the port of Bandar Abbas will grow at a stronger rate than in 2009

Global Container Shipping Key Views:

  • - Y-o-y recovery, but not near 2008 levels
  • - Consumer demand in core box markets of US and Europe to fall
  • - Weakening demand view starting to play out as peak-season surcharges delayed
  • - Recovery signs in H1 may have been misleading
  • - Intra-Asia trade routes an area of potential growth and development

 

Rugged mountains and barren deserts make transportation difficult in Iran. There are few roads or railways in the east; most of the transport network focuses on Tehran. From there, railways and roads extend to the principal citiend the Persian Gulf. Pipelines link the major oil fields and refineries and serve the chief domestic markets. Khark Island is the site of one of the Persian Gulf's main petroleum export terminals. Iran Air, owned by the government, is an international airline. Tehran and Abadan have the two main international airports.

Transportation - note: