Hong Kong Energy Profile 2012

Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010

In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but this implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. HK’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 0.58%, while it has no share of production. By 2014 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.57%. For 2009 as a whole, an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010,  a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.

In 2010, The authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.

Hong Kong’s real GDP growth is assumed to have contracted by 3.0% in 2009, compared with growth of 2.4% in 2008. Assuming average annual growth of 3.3% between 2010 and 2014. There is no upstream or refining segment, but international oil companies (IOCs) and Chinese companies are investing in import and distribution facilities. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 339,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand is set to reach 3.5bcm by 2014, with all of the fuel imported.

Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hong Kong oil consumption of 29.19%, with demand reaching 375,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption growth slows to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period. Gas demand growth of 70.81% provides an import requirement rising to 4.6bcm by 2019.

Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011