Greece: Greece Energy Profile 2012
2012/03/13
Greece Energy Profile 2012
Greece is a large producer of bauxite. Other metallic minerals mined in significant amounts are chromium, lead, and zinc. Important nonmetals produced are asbestos, magnesite, and stone, sand, and gravel. Petroleum from wells in the northern Aegean and lignite, a low-grade coal, are the chief mineral fuels produced. Output, however, falls below domestic needs and large amounts of fossil fuels must be imported.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 419.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 458.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 259.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 156.6bcm to some 199.1bcm by the end of the period. The Greek share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 0.86%, while the country makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.08%.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June-August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. Assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level.
Greek real GDP is assumed to decline by 4.6% in 2010. We are assuming 0.6% average annual GDP contraction in 2010-2014. While there is still some limited scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the nation 's oil consumption is expected to reach 447,000b/d in 2014. By 2014, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 5.0bcm, all of which will be imported.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Greek oil and gas liquids consumption of 15.12%, with volumes rising steadily from an estimated 418,000b/d in 2010 to 481,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Overall crude oil and gas liquids production is set to rise to a potential peak of 7,000b/d in 2012-2014, before easing to 5,000b/d by 2019. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 3.6bcm to 6.3bcm by 2019, relying on pipeline and LNG imports.
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