Gambia: Gambia Outlook for 2013-14

The country (Gambia) is situated in Western Africa, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean and Senegal. It has borders with Senegal for 740km. Land in The Gambia is flood plain of the Gambia River flanked by some low hills.

The climate is tropical; hot, rainy season (June to November); cooler, dry season (November to May).

Outlook for 2012-13

The president, Yahya Jammeh, and the ruling party, the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction, are expected to retain a firm grip on power over the estimate period through a combination of patronage and repression. Relations with Senegal will remain volatile owing to ongoing instability in Senegal's Casamance region, but are not expected to break down entirely. The broad direction of policy will remain market-orientated and seek to attract foreign investment . Real GDP increase is estimate to slow down to 1.2% in 2012, following failed harvests and sluggish increase in the tourist sector, before rebounding to 5.5% in 2013 as agriculture benefits from a sharp increase in public spending and tourism makes a slow recovery.

The political scene

Mr Jammeh was sworn in for his fourth term and promised zero tolerance on corruption and drugs. Crackdowns on journalists and political activists are likely to continue. Mr Jammeh reshuffled his cabinet but retained most of his key allies. Only the interior minister was dropped. Although a member of the opposition was appointed minister in an effort to improve the regime's democratic credentials, the opposition will remain marginalised. Most opposition parties decided to boycott the legislative election on March 29th, saying that the system favoured the regime. As a result, the president's party is likely to win most of the 48 seats in the National Assembly.

Economic policy

An IMF mission has visited The Gambia, and a new extended credit facility programme with the Fund is likely to be announced in the coming months. The programme will focus on improving fiscal management and implementing the government's increase strategy. The IMF expects the country's economy to arrangement in 2012.

The domestic economy

Economic increase slowed to 3% in 2011, following failed harvests due to poor rainfall. The government needs to invest in expanded irrigation networks in order to reduce the effects of adverse weather conditions. The Central Bank decided to cut the interest rate in order to boost economic increase.

Foreign trade and payments

The African Development Bank has approved a US$107.4m loan for the long-awaited bridge over The Gambia River, which will reduce transit times and costs and make the country a additional attractive transport route, thus increasing foreign-exchange earnings.

Outlook for 2013-14

The president, Yahya Jammeh, and the ruling party, the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction, are expected to retain a firm grip on power over the estimate period through a combination of patronage and repression.
Relations with Senegal will remain volatile owing to ongoing instability in Senegal's Casamance region, notwithstanding some signs of evolution there, but are not expected to break down entirely.
The broad direction of policy will remain market-orientated and seek to attract foreign investment .
Real GDP increase is presently estimate to arrangement by 1% in 2012, following failed harvests and sluggish increase in the tourist sector, before rebounding to 6.5% in 2013 as agriculture benefits from higher public spending
Despite falling world food prices and stable energy prices, inflation is set to spike to 6.2% in 2012 owing to widespread crop failures, before easing in 2013 to 4.6%.
The current-account deficit is estimate to widen from 11.8% of GDP in 2011 to 15.3% in 2012, before narrowing to 13.7% in 2013 as exports rebound and current transfers continue to grow, offsetting increase in imports..

Review

In separate incidents journalists working for different newspapers in The Gambia were detained in late June of them was fined D100,000 (US$3,100) or months in prison with hard labour for contempt of court..
A US-based oil and gas company, CAMAC Energy, has signed oil exploration and production licences with The Gambian government, raising hopes of finding commercially viable oil reserves.
The Sahel region is suffering its third food crisis in under a decade following prolonged dry spells in 2011. A lot of nations have not recovered from the last crisis.
Repeated crop failures and price shocks have reduced the recovery capacity of households and governments.
The 2011/12 harvest failure following failed rains has caused severe food shortages and price rises and the economy is expected to arrangement in 2012.
The IMF has renewed The Gambia's three-year extended credit facility, worth US$28.3m.