Europe > Southern Europe > Bosnia and Herzegovina > Balkan States Face Crisis if Russia Halts Gas Flow.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Balkan States Face Crisis if Russia Halts Gas Flow.

2014/10/17

The three Balkan nations, which have few alternative sources for heating and industry, will be hard hit if Russia halts gas supplies to Europe, Brussels warns.

For Bosnia, Macedonia and Serbia “supplies from Russia are the dominant source of gas and the supply takes place solely through one transit route via Ukraine," the analysis notes.

"National infrastructure capacities are very limited and prevent a flexible flow of gas and diversification of sources,” the analysis adds.

The three nations would be “part the nations most affected in case of supply disruptions of gas in Europe” the statement continues.

If such a scenario occurs, the availability of gas there would fall by 80 to 100 % within days, with the exception of Serbia, which has some domestic production and better storage capacities.

The analysis advises devising immediate plans for emergency "swaps" of gas with other energy sources such as coal for heating or oil for industry.

The stress test analysed the resilience of the EU energy system to a potential crisis in the coming months. The test was carried out in 38 nations and simulated two possible scenarios, a complete halt of Russian gas or a partial disruption of the supply due to problems with the Ukrainian transport route.

While Brussels assesses the damage that could occur as a consequence of a worse crisis in Russia-EU relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday appeared additional relaxed on the subject while visiting Serbia.

Addressing energy issues generally, Putin said in Belgrade that Russia had "enough resources for our needs and for the increasing request of our consumers in Europe and Asia.

"But there are transit risks and if we see that our Ukrainian partners starting, as they did in 2008, to take our gas without permission from the pipelines, we will reduce the amounts of gas, like we did in 2008," he said. "We hope it will not come to that."

Asked about the controversial Russian-led South Stream pipeline project, which the EU opposes, Putin said one side could not do the work alone.

"It is like love, it can be happy only if both sides want to develop such relations. We cannot start building a multi-billion pipeline if our partners are still deciding whether it is needed or not," he said.

The Russian pipeline is seen as rival to the Nabucco project, planned by the EU and the US as a means of reducing Europe's energy dependence on Russia.

Serbia and Macedonia, which both opted to take part in South Stream, are presently under pressure from boths sides, due to the chilled national of Western-Russia relations.

The US and the EU have imposed sanction on Russia for its alleged role in fomenting a rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

The EU imports 53 % of the energy it uses, and 66 % of its natural gas, the European stress test notes. Around half of the EU's primary energy consumption goes on heating.

Other nations from the western Balkans, such as Albania, Kosovo and Montenegro, were not incorporated in the stress test as they do not have a market in gas.

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