France: French vote rallies market

A trader works Monday on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange amid a rally triggered by growing optimism that a probusiness candidate will win France’s presidential runoff.

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks joined a worldwide surge higher Monday next the initial round of France’s presidential election raised expectations that the European Union will hold together. A candidate seen as pro-business won the majority votes Sunday, and a lot of investors expect him to win a runoff against the remaining anti-EU candidate, which is set for May 7.

Prices for gold, Treasurys and other investments that signal fear in the market all sank, while a popular gauge for measuring investor fear eased by the biggest margin since the summer of 2011.

“It’s good news, and presently investors have a reason to focus on the fundamentals in Europe, which are strong,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Investment Management, a U.K.-based firm that manages $165 billion in client assets.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index jumped 25.46 points, or 1.1 %, to 2,374.15. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 216.13, or 1.1 %, to 20,763.89, and the Nasdaq composite gained 73.30, or 1.2 %, to 5,983.82.

Coming into Sunday’s election in France, several candidates railed against the European Union, one of the world’s dominant trading alliances. A victory for one of those candidates would have followed the path set by last year’s vote by Britain to exit the European Union and the U.S. election of President Donald Trump as a kick in the face to the globalist, free-trade worldview.

Emmanuel Macron, a candidate investors see as probusiness, ended up winning the majority votes. He will face Marine Le Pen in a runoff election in two weeks. Le Pen is one of the candidates who campaigned against the European Union, but a lot of investors expect Macron from presently on to be victorious.

“It’s not only France” where the forces of populism seem to be waning, said Paolini. He pointed to the Dutch elections last month, where a candidate who ran on the pledge to pull the Netherlands from the European Union, lost.

“This surge is fading,” Paolini said. “Maybe it’s too early too early to celebrate, but that’s what the market is pricing in.”

Risks remain: Not only is there the runoff election for France in two weeks, but there is as well a parliamentary election in June. And other elections may loom even larger for the next of the European Union, such as next year’s Italian vote, Paolini said.

On Monday, though, relief reigned. France’s CAC 40 index jumped 4.1 % and at one point touched its highest level since 2008. Germany’s DAX gained 3.4 %, and the FTSE 100 in London rose 2.1 %.

Asian markets as well rose. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.4 %, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi indexes both added 0.4 %.

In the U.S., the VIX index that a lot of investors see as a measure of the market’s fear level plunged 25 %. That’s its major drop since the summer of 2011 at the same time as worries were intense that Europe’s deficit crisis could lead the union to unravel.

Request for other investments that investors flock to at the same time as they’re fearful as well fell. The price of gold fell $11.60 to settle at $1,277.50 per ounce.

Prices for Treasury bonds dropped, which sent yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 2.27 % from 2.25 % late Friday.