Cyprus: Cyprus Climate change mitigation

According to the available information from the National Meteorological Service (2009), temperature has increased by 1^οC and precipitation reduced by 100mm (corresponding to 17%) during the last 100 years [1]. These changes, are not only been noticed in statistical data, but have already caused significant impacts to the everyday life of the country. During the last 10 years the extreme weather events are showing an increasing trend and so is their intensity, droughts are more often and longer. At the same time the demand in water is increasing causing severe water scarcity. The latest example is the 2008 drought, which has caused the government to take the decision of importing water from Greece. Forest wildfires are increasing in frequency due to the high temperatures and extensive droughts and forests are already experiencing the impacts of the reduction in precipitation and high temperatures.

The projected impacts of climate change in Cyprus according to the models of the IPCC expect Cyprus to experience severe desertification within the next 100 years due to increasing temperatures and further reduction of precipitation [2].

Emission of greenhouse gases without LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) increased by 93.6% between 1990 and 2008, which corresponds to GHG emissions of 4,932 Gg CO₂ equivalents. 76% of the emissions without LULUCF in 2008 were from the sector of energy, compared to 67.5% in 1990. The increase is caused primarily by the increase in the emissions from road transport. The largest contributor to the emissions is CO2 with 84% in 2008 compared to 80% in 1990 whereas CH4 and N2O decreased from 14% to 10% and 6% to 5% respectively. In 1990 no emissions have been reported for f-gases, whereas in 2008 they contributed 1% to the total emissions. More details are available in the annual GHG (greenhouse gases emissions) report 2010 [3].

The available information from the National Meteorological Service (2009) has shown a decrease in precipitation and increase in the temperature. Precipitation reduced from an average annual precipitation in the first 30-year period of the century of 559 mm, to an average precipitation in the last 30-year period of 462 mm, corresponding to a decrease of 17%. The average precipitation in the last decade of the century is among the lowest values for the various decades of the century. Average annual temperature in Cyprus, both in urban and in rural areas, present an increasing trend. In Nicosia the average annual temperature increased from 18.9°C in the first 30-year period of the century to 19.7°C in the last 30-year period, i.e. an increase of 0.8°C.

The changing climate has already an impact in the environment of the country. Water scarcity, desertification, increase frequency in wildfires and deteriorating forests are the impacts that Cyprus has already experienced.

The main cause for the increase of GHG emissions is Cyprus is the developing economy. Since 1990 the GDP has an average annual increase of 4%. The respective increase in GHG was also 4% but with considerable fluctuations.

Cyprus ratified the UNFCCC as a non-Annex I party, and the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Annex B party. This means that Cyprus did not have any limitations or obligations regarding greenhouse gases emissions under the international regime. However, in December 2008, through the EU climate and energy package, Cyprus has been allocated with the reduction target of 5% compared to 2005 by 2020 for sectors not included in the Emissions Trading (Decision 406/2009/EC on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020). These include among other the sectors of transport, agriculture, waste, buildings etc. Moreover, there is also the target of 21% for the ETS installations, which is a target for the whole of the EU (Directive 2009/29/EC amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the Community).

Cyprus is in currently facing for the first time the challenge for reducing greenhouse gases emissions from all sectors.

In 2008, renewable energy sources contribute 4.5% to the total energy consumption in Cyprus compared to 1.9% in 1997. The aim is to reach 13% by 2020 which is the new target allocated to Cyprus through Directive 2009/28/EC. Other energy sources are coal and pet-coke (7.1%) and petrol (88.4%). Primary energy consumption in 2008 increased by 20% compared to 1990.

According to the scenarios prepared for the provisions of Article 3(2) of Directive 280/2004/EC [6] the GHG emissions are expected to reach 210% increase by 2020 compared to 1990 and 74% compared to 2005 with business as usual scenario (BaU). In case some measures are implemented (with measures scenario, WM) the increase is 86% compared to 1990 and 5% compared to 2005. Moreover, in case all the planned measures are implemented (with additional measures, WAM) the increase compared to 1990 is expected to be 30% and -27% compared to 2005. 2005 is the year of reference for the targets set through Decision 406/2009/EC on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020. The EAC scenario is the scenario of projections if the only measure taken into consideration is the use of natural gas in electricity production; the reduction that can be achieved is 21% compared to BaU or increase of 37% compared to 2005 and 145% compared to 1990.

The policies and measures included in the scenarios are presented in Table 1. The policies and measures need to be revised within the next few years, to reach the target set by the EU through the Decision 406/2009/EC and Directive 2009/29/EC. In addition to designing the appropriate system, there is also the need for correct monitoring of implementation and coordination of all the involved authorities.

References

[1]  National Meteorological Service. 2009. Precipitation and temperature in Cyprus during the last 100 years.

[2]  IPCC, 2007: Climate Change. 2007. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.

[3]  Department of Environment. 2010. Cyprus National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 1990 – 2008. 2010 Submission to the European Commission under article 3(1) of decision no 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the council concerning a mechanism for monitoring community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol

[4]  Department of Forestry. 2010. Global forest resources assessment 2010 country report for Cyprus. For submission to the Forestry Department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

[5]  Department of Forestry. 2010. Database on forest wildfires.

[6]  Department of Environment. 2009. Cyprus National projections of greenhouse gases emissions; Policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, 2009 submission under Article 3(2) of Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol