Croatia: Croatia Climate change mitigation

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing modern society. Despite the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from Croatia account for less than 0.1 % of global emissions and the country has some of the lowest per capita emissions in Europe compared to other Kyoto Protocol Annex I countries, the effects of climate change will not be avoided.

It is estimated that climate change in Croatia will mainly affect the sectors of agriculture, fisheries, hydropower and tourism. These sectors account for 25% of the Croatian economy, employ almost 600.000 people and represent a total annual GDP of 9 billion €. During 2000–2007, due to extreme weather conditions (drought, frost and hail), the agricultural sector suffered estimated losses of EUR 176 million per annum on average. This is equivalent to 0.6% of GDP or 9.3% of the Gross Value Added (GVA) generated in agriculture, forestry and fisheries .

Since increase in extreme weather conditions frequency and intensity is expected in the future due to climate change, it is necessary to develop, based on climate models, an estimate of certain climate parameters (precipitation, temperature) for Croatia and their impact on the above sectors.

Greenhouse gas emissions

The general decline in economic activity during the period 1991-1994, primarily due to the war in Croatia, led to a reduction in the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. However, in 1995, emissions began to rise again at an average rate of 3% per annum, with the largest contribution of Energy, Industrial Processes and Waste sectors.

Total GHG emission in 2008  expressed as CO₂ equivalent, including removals by sinks, was 31,132 Gg CO₂ eq., which is emission reduction by 0.9% compared to 1990 GHG emission.

Sector emissions

The Energy sector is the biggest contributor to GHG emissions. In 2008, CO₂ emissions from the heat and power production at thermal power plants, public heating plants and in public boiler houses amounted to 6,704 Gg CO₂ eq., representing 21.5% of total GHG emissions in Croatia.

In the Industrial processes sector, key emission sources are the production of cement, lime, ammonia and nitric acid and the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in refrigeration and air-conditioning systems, accounting for 99% of all emissions in this sector during 2008.

With regard to CH₄ emissions in the Agriculture sector, the main source is animal husbandry (enteric fermentation). CH₄ emissions experienced a downward trend until 2000, when an increase in the number of cattle led to a rise in emissions which continued until 2006. Direct N₂O emissions resulting from agricultural land tillage, emissions from the decomposition of animal waste (manure management) and indirect emissions have generally been stable over the past ten years.

Table 1. Emissions and removals of GHG by sector, 1990-2008

Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection,
Physical Planning and Construction, http://www.mzopu.hr/default.aspx?id=3967

Energy consumption

The major reason for the increase in GHG emission in Energy sector is increase in production and consequently increase in electricity and heat demand, along with increase in transport due to growth in number of motor vehicles and consumption of fuel.

In 2008, total energy consumption in Croatia was 413.24 PJ, resulting in per capita energy consumption that was 61.2% of the average per capita consumption in the European Union (EU 27). The largest share of approximately 30% is attributed to general consumption, while the transport share varies from 18-22%. Energy consumption in industry has gradually been decreasing and in recent years it accounted for 14-15% only, while the share of losses from energy transformations is 18-19%. Consumption of energy for non-energy use amounts to around 7% and energy transmission and distribution losses are 2-3%. During the period 2000-2008, energy consumption for operation of power plants and losses from energy transmission and distribution decreased at average annual rates of 2.1% and 2.4% respectively. In the same period, the average annual rate of increase in energy consumption for transport was 4.2%, in general consumption 2.1% and in industry 2.3%. Energy transformation losses and consumption for non-energy use increased slightly to an annual average rate of 1.1% and 0.7% respectively.

A breakdown of the individual energy shares making up the total consumption indicates that liquid fuels have the highest share at 44-46%, followed by natural gas, which has increased to around 27% in recent years. The average share of hydropower is 10-16%, depending on hydrological conditions, while the share for fire wood and biomass fuels was just over 3% in the recent  years. The share of other renewable energy sources (RES) in 2008 is very low, representing only 0.2%, but a continuous increase in installed capacities for heat and power production from the so called "new renewable energy sources" (solar, wind, geothermal, biogas and landfill gas, biodiesel, etc) has been noticed in the last five years.  The share for coal is around 8%. Imported electricity represents 4-6% of the total energy consumed and 35% of the total electricity consumption .

Growth trends in national GDP, total energy consumption and electricity consumption have resulted in a welcome reduction of energy intensities. During the period 2000-2008, energy intensity fell by an average annual rate of 2.6%, with an average annual rate of decrease by 4% from 2005 to 2008