Cameroon: Cameroon Economy Profile 2013

Overview

The rebound in the economy initiated following the 2008/09 financial crisis continued in 2012, with increase estimated at 4.9%, versus 4.1% in 2011. Supported by higher oil production and strong domestic request tied to the launch of large infrastructure projects, this positive performance should continue in the 2013-14 period.

In 2012, budgetary policy remained expansive with increased investment spending and spending on subsidies. According to estimates, the budget balance should remain in deficit, at 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared to a deficit of 2.7% in 2011. The monetary situation was characterised by a fall in net external assets (NEA) and an increase in domestic credit. Inflation, which should reach 3% (compared with 2.9% in 2011), can be explained by electricity price increases inclunding the impact of flooding on harvest stocks. With a 32.6% share of exports, oil remains the major export. Estimates based on 2012 initial-quarter performances indicate that several external balances will remain in deficit. The deficit level remains manageable, with a ratio of public deficit stock/GDP of around 16.7%.

Cameroon has abundant natural resources. However, revenues obtained from the exploitation of these resources, and from oil in particular, have not been sufficiently channeled into structural investments in infrastructure and the productive sectors. The decline of the agricultural and forestry sectors in the country’s economic structure over the completed decade attests to this. Recently, the National has undertaken steps aimed at reviving the productive sectors, particularly by strengthening infrastructure. While efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability are continued, poor governance persists and impedes the optimal use of public resources for the country’s socio-economic development.

Recent Developments & Prospects

Table 2: GDP by Sector (% of GDP)

	2007	2011
Agriculture, forestry & fishing	-	-
Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing	22.9	23.6
Construction	3.3	5.7
Electricity, gas and water	1.1	1
Electricity, water and sanitation	-	-
Extractions	-	-
Finance, insurance and social solidarity	-	-
Finance, real estate and business services	10.4	10.9
General government services	-	-
Gross domestic product at basic prices / factor cost	100	100
Manufacturing	14.9	14.5
Mining	10.6	8.3
Other services	1.1	1.2
Public Government & Personal Services	-	-
Public Government, Education, Health & Social Work, Community, Social & Personal Services	7.3	8.2
Public government, education, health & social work, community, social & personal services	-	-
Social services	-	-
Transport, storage and communication	21.9	19.5
Transportation, communication & information	-	-
Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants	6.6	7.1
Wholesale, retail trade and real estate ownership	-	-

Figures for 2012 are estimates; for 2013 and later are projections.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932809013

 

The economic recovery begun next the 2008/09 financial crisis continued in 2012, with an estimated increase rate of 4.9%, up from 4.1% in 2011. This performance is attributable to both a rise in oil production (+9.7%, compared to -7.3% in 2011) and strong domestic request linked to the start of large infrastructure projects. In 2012, private sector activity boosted internal request by 6.5%, up from just 5.3% in 2011.

Through the supply of goods and services for various projects, the result of this increased request was felt throughout the economy. The recovery has boosted the increase of the non-oil sector, estimated at 5% in 2012, and of agriculture (+4.1%), agro food (+3.6%), construction (+11.2%), inclunding transportation and telecommunications (+8.8%).

This momentum should be sustained in 2013. The national hydrocarbons society (Société nationale des hydrocarbures, SNH) should benefit from new oil fields coming into activity, particularly at Dissoni, which could boost production by 17 000 to 20 000 barrels per day (bpd). This will bring production from its current level of 63 000 bpd to 90 000 or 100 000 bpd. Increase should as well be boosted by the drilling of new mines in the Douala/Kribi-Campo basin, the reopening of certain mines in the Rio del Rey basin (thanks to new extraction techniques), the optimisation of production facilities and the development of the Kribi gas power plant.

However, 2012 was marked by events that negatively impacted on increase. The agricultural sector stagnated with floods in the North of the country resulting in crop losses. Rice paddy and sorghum stocks were half damaged and seedlings and cultivated areas were literally swallowed up (cotton, onion, rice, and sorghum). The result of this bad weather was compounded by external developments inclunding the contraction in world request for raw materials linked to the ongoing sovereign deficit crisis in the euro area and falling prices for Cameroon’s key raw materials exports (wood, rubber, coffee, cocoa and cotton) due to geopolitical tensions. In addition, net external request continued to exert a negative result on increase in 2012 due to a deterioration in the exchange rate (-7.5%) and a rise in imports, particularly in equipment necessary for large public works.

To consolidate gains since 2010, at the same time as the Increase and Employment Strategy was launched (and continued in the 2010-20 Increase and Employment Strategy Paper, GESP), Cameroon maintained its investment programme in the energy, transportation, telecommunications and manufacturing sectors. Initiatives included: i) the paving of roads, notably on the Djoum-Mintom-Congolese border (233 km), Fumban-Magba trunk (66 km), Ekok-Mamfe (73 km), and Garoua Boulaï-Ngaoundéré trunks; ii) the construction of the gas fired plant at Kribi and hydro electrical dams at Mekin, Lom Pangar and Memve’ele; iii) the extension of the fibre optic network; iv) the construction of 10 000 low cost housing units; and v) the construction of a new cement works in Douala.

Thus, with the help of these projects and their result on domestic request, the economic recovery begun in 2010 should be sustained over the 2013-14 period. The extractive industries should grow, with: the Kribi gas plant scheduled to be operational in the initial quarter of 2013 contributing an additional 216 MW to the country’s electricity supply; private investment to exploit the Mbalam gas well and the gas fields from Logbaba to Douala (212 billion cubic metres of gas and almost 4.2 million barrels of condensates); and the start of production of new oil wells, which will boost extraction volumes. These investments should represent 21.9% of GDP in 2013 and 22.9% in 2014 and these combined factors should enable Cameroon to reach 5% increase in 2013 and 5.2% in 2014. Following mixed results during the initial two years of the 2010-2020 development strategy, the country is edging towards the 5.5% targeted increase rate.

In the short to medium term, certain factors risk impacting increase projections for 2013 and 2014. These include the ongoing crisis in Europe and possible delays to public construction projects due to poor absorption capacities attributable to administrative deficiencies. The country’s increase as well remains vulnerable to climatic shocks, as demonstrated by the 2012 floods, and to volatility in world prices for primary raw materials.

Over the 2013-14 period however, the rise in oil production combined with the gradual decline in imports of equipment and the completion of a number of large construction projects in the transportation and electricity sectors, should offset these risks.

According to estimates, inflation should level at 3% in 2012, up slightly from the 2.9% recorded in 2011. This is due to higher prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks, higher electricity prices and the effects of the floods that damaged harvests.

Macroeconomic Policy

In 2012, budgetary policy remained expansive with large expenditures linked to subsidies and infrastructure projects. Budget execution was marked by a strong rise in gain (+9.6%) over the previous year. This result was due to increased oil revenues (+10.5%) and tax collection efforts (+8.4%). In total, gain accounted for 18% of GDP in 2012, up from 17.9% in 2011. Transfers and subsidies continued to rise, specifically driven by oil products and capital spending (linked to the public investment plan). In parallel to controlling current spending in 2012, budget execution progressed in reversing previous tendencies of poor investment absorption. Thus in 2012, the budgetary execution rate for spending reached around 89.2% of forecasts, compared with 86.2% in 2011. The adoption of the budget programme should strengthen strategic tools (the medium term budget framework and the medium term spending framework) by presently present in a large number of ministerial departments.

The National significantly increased resources allocated to current spending and to petrol subsidies. These reached XAF 662 billion (CFA franc BEAC), or additional than 1 billion euros in 2012, compared with XAF 550 billion in 2011. They should rise to XAF 689 billion in 2013. Alone, subsidies and transfers consumed additional than 27% of total gain and 26% of total spending during the 2012 budget exercise. Throughout the previous budget period, these ratios were 24% and 22%, respectively. Capital spending accounted for 32% of gain and 31% of spending in 2012, unchanged from 2011.

In light of the country’s weak infrastructure inclunding delays built up over the years, investment ratios additional than comply with GESP goals. This rhythm should be sustained over the 2013-4 period, with an average of 35% for gain and 31% for spending. However, this rise in investment spending should have been accompanied by a gradual increase in spending on maintaining existing infrastructure – which is not currently the case.

The trend in terms of subsidies and transfers is worrying. Indeed, petrol subsidies and the continued tax exemption status of food imports weigh heavily on public finances. In addition, the subsidies on petrol products have led to large arrears being accumulated with SONARA, the national oil refining company, and in turn, to the company’s high deficit with national banks. Beyond the high opportunity cost in terms of investment , these measures provoke questions about their sustainability in regards to public finances and their efficiency in combatting poverty. The government should urgently consider introducing additional targeted social protection nets (such as public transportation subsidies) and other direct assistance to low-gain individuals.

The 2013 budget law maintained this focus on supporting consumption and purchasing power, particularly for cash crop farmers. It as well continued incentives for importers of goods of mass consumption (rice, wheat, fish,adhesive, etc.).

The sole measures currently undertaken by the government to overturn this trend focus on promoting local production. This is the case, for example, of programmes to revive rice production, which will benefit from Japanese, Chinese and Indian aid, projects to develop intensive aquaculture, inclunding aid to improve fishing and fish conserving facilities.

While better fiscal mobilisation in 2012 enabled the public investment programme to be reinforced, the impact of food imports tax exemptions and petrol pump price subsidies continued to make budgetary management less efficient. The budget balance should deteriorate during the 2012 period, with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP, compared to 2.7% in 2011. In light of this situation, the National raised external financing (of XAF 49 billion), issued Treasury bonds (XAF 50 billion) and drained XAF 41 billion from central bank reserves.

If this trend in spending continues (subsidies and transfers), the budget deficit could exceed 3% over the 2013-14 period, save for a significant increase in oil revenues.

Cameroon is part of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). As such, its monetary policy is determined by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), which prioritises controlling inflation and maintaining parity between the CFA franc and euro.

Over the 2011-12 period, the country experienced a fall in net external assets and a rise in domestic credit. Net external assets declined by 12.6% in 2012 over the previous year, affected by the coverage of primary goods imports and fuel. Credits to the economy recorded an 11.3% increase in 2012, due to higher commitments from the private sector (up XAF 232.5 billion) and non-financial sector public companies (up XAF 14.6 billion) to the banking system. As well affecting domestic credit were the participation of banks in financing the construction of the Kribi gas power plant, the modernisation and increase in production capacities at SONARA, inclunding the numerous loans obtained by companies sub-contracted on structural projects.

Money mass declined slightly by 0.1%, going from XAF 2 703.3 billion in 2011 to XAF 2 701.5 billion in 2012. Deposits fell by 2.1%, while currency in circulation rose by 10.2%. The relative share of deposits in money mass went from 83.7% to 82.1% over the same period, reflecting increased national savings. This development in money supply is accompanied by a 3% increase in consumer prices, which still conforms to the convergence criteria and multilateral surveillance programme of the CEMAC zone. Lastly, it should be noted that in 2012, Cameroon drew on reserves rather than resorting to monetary financing of its deficit.

By virtue of its geographic position and diversified economy, Cameroon is the motor of regional trade in central Africa, particularly in the CEMAC zone. This is belied by statistics for the decade to 2010 as the Cameroonian economy accounted for almost 40% of GDP in the zone, 16.8% of exports and 38.8% of imports and additional than 44% of money supply. According to the central bank, the leading trade partner for Cameroon in the CEMAC zone is Equatorial Guinea, with 30% of trade, followed by Chad (27%), Congo (25%), Gabon (11%) and Central African Republic (7%). Cameroon exports primarily food products, meat, mineral water, fruit juices, palm oil, iron and steel to the region. It imports crude oil, cigarettes, and liquefied gas (originating primarily in Equatorial Guinea). Aside from crude oil, Congo is the leading partner for Cameroon in the CEMAC zone, with 41% of trade. It is followed by Gabon (20%), Equatorial Guinea (16%), Chad (15%) and Central African Republic (8%). Despite the volume of these exchanges, numerous barriers persist that compromise full use of this trade potential.

The Douala free port – which is a hub for foreign trade (95% of customs gain and most traffic to Cameroon is handled by the port) and an access point for neighbouring landlocked nations (Chad and CAR) – suffers from a number of issues. In the absence of adequate support structures, it has become a holding area and warehouse for a number of organisations, as importers are allowed eleven free days before having to pay storage fees. According to several sources, the one-stop shop for foreign trade (GUCE), which oversees customs clearance, takes up to eight weeks to process shipments. As a result, the port is near-permanently overcrowded. Awaiting the completion of modernisation works on the Kribi and Limbe ports, the government adopted a number of measures in 2012 inclunding: implementing regulations, publishing performance standards for customs officials and optimising the management of dock workers. The digitalisation of the GUCE which is under way, should facilitate the execution of port formalities and reduce both delays and costs. In addition and for the purpose of regional integration, the government is highly involved in installing communications infrastructure. It as well contributes to the convergence programme for the sub-region and it respects the four criteria imposed on regional states under the multilateral monitoring framework. Lastly, the government fulfils its financial obligations to sub-regional institutions and takes an active role in sub-regional meetings.

During the 2012 budget year, exports were dominated by crude oil (32.6%). Excluding petrol products, the other five leading other exports accounted for 27.3% of the total: unprocessed cocoa beans, cut wood, unprocessed logs, natural rubber and raw cotton. Food products and equipment comprised the majority of imports. The exemption measures on foodstuffs provoked a phenomenon of re-exports to neighbouring nations, constituting a risk for the current account balance.

Despite the good performance of world prices of its exports in 2012, Cameroon should continue to post several external deficits (estimates based on initial quarter results). The current-account deficit should reach 5.3% of GDP at the end of 2012, versus 4.5% in 2011. The trade-account deficit should similarly become additional pronounced, at around 4.4% of GDP, compared to 3.9% in 2011. The current-account balance should remain in deficit in 2013, at 5.3% of GDP, due primarily to the trade-account deficit, which should reach 4.7% of GDP.

In terms of economic partnerships, France remains the major foreign investor in Cameroon, although China appears to be increasingly involved. It is by presently participating in several projects in the country, particularly in transportation and energy infrastructure. Cameroon has signed an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the European Union, which has from presently on to be ratified. It should be recalled that in September 2011, the European Commission announced that unless the EPA is ratified before January 2014, the country will be excluded from market access regulations. Cameroon must urgently pre-empt the impact of this action on its economy. 

Public deficit levels should reach XAF 2 020 billion by 31 December 2012, or 15.6% of GDP, down by 9 billion over 2011. Foreign deficit represents 65.4% (XAF 1 321 billion) of the total deficit, and domestic deficit 34.6% (XAF 700 billion).

With domestic budget revenues estimated at XAF 2 662.2 billion and spending (inclunding interest payments on public deficit) estimated at XAF 2 970.9 billion, in 2013 the primary balance should represent -3.1% of GDP. The XAF 265.1 billion amortisation of public deficit will require XAF 574 billion in financing. This should be covered by foreign grants of XAF 66 billion (of which XAF 43 billion falls under the Deficit Reduction-Development Arrangement), foreign indebtedness (of XAF 258 billion) and domestic credit, through the emission of XAF 250 billion in public securities.

In terms of sustainability, deficit levels will remain manageable between 2013 and 2017. Over this period, the ratio of public deficit stock/GDP will remain around 16.7% and, even with extremely challenging external shocks, it will not surpass 17.6% - a figure well below the critical threshold of 70% fixed by the CEMAC zone convergence criteria. By 2014, the ratio of present price of deficit to GDP could reach almost 25%. Although there is no current risk of over indebtedness, the country’s obligations towards developing economies for its infrastructure projects are beginning to be significant¹ and could, in time, pose a problem for the viability of its foreign deficit.

Economic & Political Governance

Cameroon’s ranking in the World Bank statement Doing Business 2013 – at 161^st place out of 185 nations – indicates a long road ahead to improve the business environment. In 2012, the government implemented a number of reforms, inclunding: i) revising business start up regulations, with a provision for a new 48-hour maximum delay for procedures with notaries prior to approaching business creation regulation centres (CFCEs); ii) introducing a new procedure for registering with the Registre du commerce et du crédit mobilier, with better autonomy given to CFCE agents; iii) reducing by 22% the costs of forming a company in CFCEs; iv) a three-month delay to produce land titles; v) launching a tax centre (CDI) for small companies and reinvigorating the fight against contraband, evasion and counterfeits; vi) creating commercial chambers in courts to facilitate the settling of trade disputes (Law 2011/027 of 14^th December 2011), with appointed presidents; vii) continuing to digitalise the judicial system; viii) passing the application texts on the e-commerce law; ix) introducing electronic payments for customs duties, via an agreement between the banks and the Finance Ministry; x) signing the decree regulating certification; xi) creating a virtual platform between the automated customs system and the Oscar management system of the container terminal to speed up customs procedures; xii) connecting customs offices nationally to introduce a new trade system; xiii) establishing a review board for applications for construction permits in the Douala metropolitan sector(CUD), which will meet twice monthly; and, xiv) digitalising the system for managing construction permits, which will introduce transparency into the system.

Cameroon’s financial sector continues to be dominated by multi-service banks. Specialist banks (business and investment banks) and leasing companies remain absent, which considerably limits long-term borrowing capacities. In addition, the cost of mobilising resources remains high, even with surplus liquidity in the banking system.

In general, the sector is healthy, with the exception of two banks (out of a dozen), which have been struggling since 2009. They are being restructured, under the supervision of the Central African Banking Commission (COBAC), the CEMAC banking supervision body.

An assessment of the prudential ratios in mid 2012 confirmed this relative solidity: ten banks adhered to liquidity ratios, while three had excess liquidity. The CEMAC banking system consolidation programme aims for all banks in the sub-region to bring their minimum capital to XAF 7.5 billion by June 2012 and to XAF 10 billion by 30 June 2014. By 30 June 2012, the two weaker banks were struggling to meet to these standards.

The sizeable arrears the National owes to SONARA pose a risk for the Cameroonian economy, given its high exposure.

Since 2010, the National has had recourse to the bond market and since 2011 the Treasury has issued bonds to cover short-term needs. Over 2011, the National raised XAF 50 billion in bond-equivalent securities with an average interest rate of 2.3%. By end June 2012, XAF 55 billion had been raised with an average interest rate of 2.2% - which remains competitive in comparison to the 4% charged on BEAC statutory advances to national treasuries.

In 2012, the government undertook two broad measures aimed at increasing the effectiveness of the National’s financial management: i) lightening public procurement procedures, notably via the creation of an ad hoc ministry; and ii) adopting a results-based budget programme which should have been brought into result on 1^st January 2013. Other advances are of note, such as multiannual commitments for investment spending and the development of the market for Treasury bonds, which has improved management of the National treasury.

Public government is highly fragmented, as seen by the large number of ministers. Reforms aimed at decentralisation are under way with additional power being granted to local authorities in order to strengthen internal co-ordination. The GESP contributes by focusing ministerial departments on a number of strategic priorities, obliging them to act in line with the strategy.

Efforts to increase transparency have continued, with monthly publications of public finance indicators (called TABORD). Local public project monitoring committees produce quarterly reports in a number of localities. A statement on the physical and financial execution of the public spending budget summarises both these local reports and ones on centrally managed projects. All the same, in 2012, a few irregularities came to light in the course of this summarising activity.

While Cameroon signed up to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in 2005, the country is struggling to raise itself to the level of compliant nations. It runs a risk of being expelled if corrective measures are not undertaken before August 2013 – a scenario which could lead to a loss of confidence in international donors who support EITI. In May 2012, Cameroon thus adopted a three-year plan that should enable it to become compliant by the deadline. 

Located adjacent to Lake Chad and part of the Congo basin, Cameroon is very sensitive to environmental issues and it has signed numerous international agreements on the subject. The country has several action plans and national programmes in place aimed at improving management of the environment, forests and fauna and of the forestry sector. Recent floods and their socio-economic impact have as well increased awareness of environmental issues amongst the authorities. The framework law for the environment moreover is in need of revision.

Forestry sector reform has advanced greatly recently. A new code has been drawn up and will be discussed in Parliament in a little while. The draft provisions reinforce transparency in access to forestry concessions, which will be granted interdepartmentally, with civil society and the private sector participating at the same time as concessions are opened up.

In the mining sector, the code has been revised to comply with international standards, particularly in terms of transparency in granting permits and, additional importantly, in obliging mining operators to compensate and mitigate the impact of mining activities.

Lastly, measures have been taken to reinforce synergies between the natural resources sector and other sectors. The management of these resources is thus no longer the prerogative of the ministries in charge of forests and the environment, as interdepartmental management has become additional widespread, with civil society increasingly involved.

The year 2012 was marked by socio-political stability. The President Paul Biya, in power since 1982, was re-elected in October 2011. Under the guidance of the current Prime Minister, Philémon Yang, re-elected to his post, a new government was appointed in December 2011 with none of the opposition parties included. The only noteworthy change concerned the creation of a Public Procurement Ministry.

In April 2012, having been proposed by the government, a law extending the mandate of parliamentary members was adopted. The text provides for a renewable six-month extension of the current legislature. This change has resulted in the postponing by one year of legislative elections, initially scheduled for 2012.

The ‘Épervier’ plan to improve governance and bring high-ranking officials accused of various forms of embezzlement to justice has been in operation for several years. It has brought about the arrest and conviction of several political figures. For several observers however, these trials are only the shadow of a battle that will offer up the possible successors of the current chief of national.

Social Context & Human Development

Cameroon appears to be on course to achieve Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 2 on universal primary education by 2015. The gross enrolment rate (GER) has by presently exceeded the 100% target and the net enrolment rate (NER) is rising, having increased by 8.5% between 2001 and 2010. Other indicators remain below target, although they are improving steadily, as is the case for the primary school completion rate (which reached 73%, versus an 88% target).

Cameroon will clearly find it additional difficult to attain MDG 4 pertaining to under-five and infant mortality by the deadline. Despite all of the components of this indicator exhibiting a falling trend since 2000 (infant mortality and child-juvenile mortality), evolution has not been sufficient. According to data from the 2011 appropriate demographic and health survey (EDS-MICS), infant mortality went from 151 per thousand before 1998 to 144 per thousand in 2004 again to 122 per thousand in 2011.

Maternal mortality (targeted in MDG 5) has followed a worrying trend over the completed decades, with the rate going from 511 deaths per one hundred thousand live births in 1991 to 782 in 2010. These statistics reflect an alarming situation, which should undermine the succcess of this goal by 2015.

On the other hand, efforts to increase access to reproductive healthcare (Target B of MDG 5) form part of a real drive. Increasingly, a large proportion of women have access to prenatal care, although the situation differs from region to region. Broadly, 64% of pregnant women give birth in the presence of a healthcare worker and 61% give birth in health clinics (of which 21% are in private establishments). But in 37% of cases, women still give birth at home, particularly in rural areas (54%).

The country is trying to reverse the HIV/AIDS prevalence curve. For 15-59 year olds, this went from 0.5% in 1987 to 10.8% in 2000 again to 5.5% in 2004, before falling to 4.3% in 2011. Access to healthcare remains a critical challenge. As a result, the MDG 6 target of achieving universal healthcare in 2010 could not be met.

The situation regarding malaria is as well worrying and Cameroon will most probably not achieve the related MDG 6C target. This disease continues to be the leading cause of morbidity and mortality amongst the majority vulnerable groups, particularly children under five and pregnant women. It is responsible for 24% of all deaths recorded in healthcare institutions, 40-45% of medical consultations and 30% of hospitalisations (EDS-MICS 2011). Tuberculosis remains a scourge with 22 500 new cases recorded on average each year by the Ministry of Public Health. It is responsible for a 1% fall in GDP. The resurgence of this disease is linked to both persistent poverty and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

In April 2003, the government adopted a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) the aim of which is to bring the incidence of poverty to 25.2% by 2015 (which entails halving the 1996 rate of 53.3%, and with an interim rate of 37.1% in 2007). In order to reach this target, the paper hypothesises on a 7% increase rate per annum for the period. However, increase has not exceeded 3% to 3.4%. The PRSP, which focuses primarily on priority social sectors, projects bringing the poverty rate down to 28.7% in 2020.

The periodically conducted Cameroon household survey (ECAM) enables the country to monitor poverty indicators regularly. Despite a 13-point fall in the incidence of poverty between 1996 and 2001, between 2001-07 poverty only dropped from 40.2% to 39.9%. As such, evolution was slower than expected, with a decline in poverty of just 0.28%.

The Southwest, West, South and border provinces posted a 30% incidence of poverty, while in the Centre it reached 41% and approached 50% in the Northwest, East and Adamawa. These data as well attest that poverty fell in urban areas (-5.7 points) but rose in rural ones (+3 points). As such, the rural poor increased from 85% to 89% between 2001 and 2007. The principal determinants of poverty are household size, high fertility, education level and sector of economic activity.

The attainment of MDG 3 which aims to eliminate gender disparity in education at all levels by 2015 remains problematic at the same time as analysing the evolution of social indicators. Parity in the gross enrolment rate was 0.86 in 2010. The male/female gap in primary and secondary schooling has been reduced significantly, from 4.3% in 2001 to 0.6% in 2010. Parity increased significantly at secondary level, with a additional pronounced reduction in the gap between the sexes, of 0.01 and 0.08 for the primary and secondary levels. However, the EDS-MICS 2011 survey revealed that less than 69% of women are literate, compared with 82% of men, and that 20% of women received no education, compared with 8% of men.

Disparities between men and women in the working people as well exist, inclunding high inequality in terms of property ownership. While Ruling 74-1 of 6 July 1974 guarantees that each individual or entity possessing land titles has the right to benefit from and dispose of them freely, in reality the situation seems less favourable for women; they are almost entirely absent from land registers.

Early marriage remains relatively common. At age 15, around 8% of women have by presently given birth at least once, and this proportion accelerates with age so that 55% have given birth before 20 and 83% before 25 (EDS-MICS 2011).