Abidjan: Côte d'Ivoire Outlook for 2016-17

The country (Cote d'Ivoire) is situated in Western Africa, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean, between Ghana and Liberia. It has borders with Burkina Faso for 584km, Ghana for 668km, Guinea for 610km, Liberia for 716km and Mali for 532km. Land in Cote d'Ivoire is mostly flat to undulating plains; mountains in northwest. Ivoirian land covers an area of 322460 km².

The climate is tropical along coast, semiarid in far north; three seasons - warm and dry (November to March), hot and dry (March to May), hot and wet (June to October). Ivoirian(s) speak French (official), 60 native dialects with Dioula the majority widely spoken.

Country Overview

Côte d’Ivoire’s economic performance has been impressive over the completed four years with a robust GDP increase which resulted in a decline in poverty. The government adopted a new national development plan for the 2016-2020 period, in addition to its National Development Plan (NDP) 2016-2020 which encompasses major structural reforms to achieve a sustained private sector led and inclusive increase, along with the structural transformation of the economy. The NDP 2016-2020 builds on lessons learned in the 2012-2015 NDP implementation, and aims at achieving the emerging economy status for Côte d'Ivoire in 2020, with a substantially reduced poverty rate.

Political Context

President Ouattara reshuffled his cabinet on January 6, 2016, two months next he was re-elected for a second five-year term on October 25, 2015. President Ouattara seeks to deepen national reconciliation and draw up a new constitution which he plans to put to a referendum in the course of 2016. The President has as well indicated that the country will vote in legislative and municipal elections in late 2016. The government priorities include redistributing uneven wealth and tackling high youth unemployment.

On March 13, 2016, a deadly terrorist attack occurred at the Grand Bassam beach resort. It was the initial terrorist attack in the country’s history.

Economic Overview

With GDP increase reaching 8.4% in 2015 and projected at 8.5% in 2016, economic activity maintained its dynamic pace across all sectors benefitting from a robust accumulation request and a surge in both private and public investments. In agriculture, production increased across major crops such as cocoa (36%), coffee (16%), cashew nuts (18%) and sugar (12%); benefiting from price guarantee schemes for farmers and the implementation of private-public production boosting programs. The in general industrial production index rose by 10.5%, with the manufacturing and construction sub-sector indices rising respectively by 10 and 23%. In services, the index of turnover in the retail sector rose by 7%, telecom subscribers increased by 14%, and the components of transport services as well grew. This reflects the outcome of business environment reforms, public investment programs and the increases in households’ gain.

Social Context

The poverty incidence in Côte d’Ivoire slightly diminished from an estimated 51% in 2011 to 46% in 2015 in response to the recent rebound of economic increase. Between 1985 and 2008, the estimated share of the people living below the poverty line increased from around 10% to about 49%. During this period, the increase in the depth and severity of poverty was dramatic. The findings of the 2015 Living Standards Monitoring Survey (LSMS – ENV2015) indicate that poverty has decreased to 46% in 2015 as the economy rebounds as a result of improved conditions in both rural and urban areas. Poverty continues to be overwhelmingly rural with disparities in access to basic services, and gender disparities across wealth and urban-rural groups.