Brazil: Agriculture
Brazil Agriculture Profile 2012
Reference Date: 20-May-2011
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Area sown to 2011 wheat forecast to decline
The sowing of wheat for the 2011 agricultural season is in progress in the main growing areas in the south of the country. In the state of Parana, which produces 50 percent of annual wheat output, 30 percent of the sowing intentions have already been planted. The dry weather during May is benefiting fieldwork. However, official forecasts indicate a reduction in the area planted compared to the previous season as a result of the problems with commercialising the grain in previous years. Assuming a normal weather conditions this season, it is forecast that the 2011 production could reach 5 million tonnes, 17 percent less than 2010.
Increase in 2011 maize and rice production
Harvesting of the main season 2011 maize crop is well advanced in the central and southern production areas. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul 80 percent of the cultivated area has been gathered and 96 percent in that of Parana. Planting of the 2011 second maize season in the central-western growing areas (40 percent of the annual production) was delayed due to late soybeans harvest and excessive rains in January, which could negatively affect potential yields. Overall, the total area planted to maize is estimated 4 percent higher than last year and, weather during the growing seasons have been generally favourable for crops development. The 2011 aggregate maize output (main and second season) is forecast at near 58 million tonnes, a slight increase from the good level of last year. Harvesting of the irrigated rice is about to be completed in the main southern growing areas. Following adequate water supplies the area planted is estimated to have increased by 4 comparing to the previous season and production is forecast 13.5 million tonnes, 15 percent up from 2010.
Record maize exports in 2010/11 (March/February)
According to official data, exports of maize in marketing year 2010/11 (March/February) are forecast at a record level of 12 million tonnes. The increase in exports mainly reflects higher prices in the international markets and government-supported auctions.
Prices of yellow maize and wheat flour at high levels
In the capital city market of Sao Paulo, prices of yellow maize and wheat flour in April 2011 were 75 percent and 21 percent respectively higher than at the same time last year. Prices of these grains have followed the trend in international markets, increasing since mid-2010. High domestic demand for feed is also supporting prices of maize. By contrast, prices of rice (2nd quality) in April were 19 percent below their levels a year earlier, after having sharply decreased last month with the 2011 harvest.
Reference Date: 2-March-2011
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Planting concluded for the main 2011 summer crops, prospects mostly favourable so far
The planting of the summer crops of maize, soybean and irrigated-rice for harvest in 2011 was concluded in December 2010. Rainfall received during December and early January have improved soil moisture conditions in most areas of Rio Grande do Sul state, where crops were suffering from water stress due to earlier low and irregular rainfall. In the other states the rainfall has been favourable for the planting of summer crops.
The total area planted to maize is estimated at 7.3 million hectares, 3.7 percent below the previous year. Maize planting was delayed due to the rainfall irregularities mainly in Rio Grande do Sul state, where some losses have been reported in parts. However in Parana, Minais Gerais and Goias states the development of the crop is reported to be from good to very good. Soybean plantings are estimated at 24.1 million hectares, a new record, and 2.6 percent above the area planted during 2009/10 crop season. The area planted to paddy is estimated at 2.7 million hectares, slightly below the area planted during 2009/10 crop season. Prospects are good for the irrigated paddy crop (80 percent of national total) in the centre/south of the country as a result of good water supply in the dams and favourable dry planting weather. Planting of rain-fed paddy has begun in north/north-eastern parts of the country.
Wheat harvesting ended confirming an overall record cereal output in 2010
Harvesting of 2010 wheat crop has ended in all producing states. Early estimates point to a near record production of 5.9 million tonnes, 17 percent above 2009. During 2010 crop season, there was reduction in wheat area planted but this was more than compensated by a sharp increase of wheat yield attributable to favourable weather conditions.
In aggregate, total cereal production in 2010 was a record.
Maize price is raising, wheat and rice are stable
A domestic price of maize has been rising in recent months influenced by the increase in prices of these cereals in international markets. In the Sao Paulo market, wholesale wheat prices are stabilized in February 2011, due to the arrival of the new 2010 harvest. The increase in wheat flour prices was much larger, at 25 and 27 percent respectively. The sharpest increase was for maize which has risen by 42 percent since August. By contrast the wholesale price for rice in the Sao Paulo market has remained relatively stable.
Related Reports:
Increased moisture needed for germination of main summer crops
Harvesting of the main season cereal production is complete in the southern main states while it is about to start in the North-eastern states. According to official estimates the cereal harvest in 2010 is expected to be the highest on record, exceeding the 2009 output by more than 11 percent, although the area harvested has slightly decreased. Following the bumper harvest of 2010, maize exports in 2010/11 are forecast at a record 9.5 million tonnes.
Wheat harvest is already underway in the states of Parana, Goias, Minas Gerais, and in the Federal District while crop development is delayed in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. Yield estimates in the states of Parana and Sao Paulo indicate a considerable increase compared to the previous year that was affected by excessive rainfall during last crop maturing stages. Estimates point to a 2010 wheat production of more than 5.3 million tonnes, 7 percent higher than the output obtained in 2009 and significantly above average.
Rice harvesting is complete in the Northern producing states. Erratic rainfall, during the cropping season, affected the mainly rain-fed production. The output in 2010 is estimated to be slightly more than 11 million tonnes, almost 11 percent below the 2009 crop and 7 percent below the last five years average.
Sowing of the main maize crop is currently underway in the states of Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goias and Minas Gerais. Irregular rainfall, either scarce or locally excessively abundant, is slowing down sowing operations. Planted area so far accounts only 50 percent of what was planned at the beginning of the cropping season. This may delay the planting of the second maize cropping season which is scheduled to start in January.
Planting of the 2011 rice crop has also started recently in the central and southern states with favourable conditions and a slight increase in planted area compared to the previous years.
Optimum water availability in the watersheds where irrigated rice is produced (accounting for approximately 80 percent of the total domestic production) particularly the central and southern regions combined with the use of high yielding varieties augurs well for crop development.
In Sao Paulo, wheat and maize wholesale prices have shown a relatively stable trend since September 2008. However, in September 2010, wheat prices have shown a jump of about 11 percent compared to the previous month. Still prices remained at the same level of September 2009 and 42 percent below the peak recorded in May 2008. The increase in wheat prices in September may be a reflection of the rise in international prices.
Following a significant decline from their record levels in June 2008, rice prices exhibit seasonal fluctuations from January 2009. In the last three months, starting from July, quotations have remained stable at the level of BRL1.5 /Kg.