Oceania > Australia > Australia Transportation Profile 2012

Australia: Australia Transportation Profile 2012

2012/02/16

 

 

 

Australia Transportation Profile 2012

25/11/2010 Freight Transport Statement Q1 2011

 
Despite the world economic downturn, both China and India are still battling for access to the world's natural resources and are willing to make huge investments to develop the infrastructure of Australia. However, the scrapping of major China-Australia container shipping services does not bode well for the national of the Australian economy. BMI's core view that mining companies will seek to gain ownership of freight networks such as railway lines and ports to complement their business operations and ensure their supply chain was reinforced by the pledge of BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal to invest in new coal terminals at Australia's Abbot Point.
 
Air cargo which was badly affected by the economic downturn is still immersed in the scandal of price fixing which masked inefficiency in the industry. Polar Air Cargo pleaded guilty in September to fix airfreight charges, which may well start off another round of court cases. Qantas is seeking to make its business additional efficient to maintain its contract with Australia Post. Virgin Atlantic Cargo started to recover from the losses it suffered at the height of the economic crisis in 2009.
Rail is marked by new projects to save major mining operations and the first moves in the privatisation of the national owned railways. Some of the increased freight will clearly travel by road and there are calls to make the roads safer.
We forecasting a increase of 4.9% in total trade in real terms for 2010. Over the rest of the estimate period (2010-2014), BMI expects that Australia's total trade will increase by a yearly average of just 1.87%.
 
Australia's air freight sector is estimate to post a year on time(y-o-y) increase of 4.3% in 2010, this is a recovery on 2009 when cargo volumes carried by air fall by an estimated -1.82%. Increase in throughput at Australia's ports in 2010 is expected to be between 2.5% and 4% in 2010 but this will fall back over the estimate period after the initial recovery spurt subsides. We predicts a increase of 6.02% for rail freight in FY10, after an estimated annual fall of -0.64% in FY09. This will again fall off to a CAGR of 2% over the estimate period. Road freight which is most flexible to change is expected to grow 6.7% in tonnes carried in 2010 and is expected to experience a CAGR of 2.3% over the estimate period.

11/10/2010 Shipping Statement Q4 2010

The core view that mining companies will seek to gain ownership of freight networks such as railway lines and ports to complement their business operations and ensure their supply chain has once again been highlighted by mining companies BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal pledging to invest in new coal terminals at Australia's Abbot Point. The expansion project, like others at Australia's coal export terminals, has been driven by growing Chinese request, which has seen vessels form queues outside New South Wales ports as request intensifies and the country's port infrastructure struggles to cope. In the other hangd we believes that China's coal request is a phenomenon that will last throughout the mid term, we are worried about the effect that a fall in Chinese coal request in the short term will have on Australia's port expansions, as developers faced with falling coal throughput volumes may question the need for further investment.

 
By 2011, capacity at the port is set to be lifted from the current 21mn tonnes per year to 50mn tonnes per year. BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal plan to build new terminals at the port, a project that when completed will see Abbot Point offering a coal export capacity of 110mn tonnes per annum. The port's management hopes to develop Abbot Point into the major coal port in Australia and the world within 10 years, which would require significant expansion work. According to data from Ports Australia, Abbot Point is ranked fourth out of Australia's top coal export ports, handling 14.4mn tonnes of coal in the 2008/2009 financial year.
 
We think cargo handled at of Australia's key ports, the Port of Melbourne (POM) and Port of Sydney (POS), have grown at a slow to moderate rate in the financial year 2009/10. In general tonnage terms, POM will be out in front, with 5.2% increase to 30.61mn tonnes, starting to recover from the 2008/09 downturn when the port was not able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes fell by 5.6% to 29.1mn tonnes in 2008/09). 2009/10 total volume at POS is expected to gain a additional subdued 2.5% to 28.49mn tonnes. In 2008/09, POS volumes dropped by 4.7% to 27.8mn tonnes. At the Port of Melbourne container movements will grow 7.4% to 2.320mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this year, while at Port of Sydney they will be up by 4% to 1.855mn TEUs. While POS's increase has been consistently positive in recent years, POM has been additional volatile, and additional closely linked to international shipping fluctuations; 2008/09 box throughput at Port of Melbourne declined by 4.3%.
 
Australia has the second highest level of car ownership in the world. It has three to times additional road per capita than Europe and to nine times additional than Asia. Australia as well has the third highest per capita rate of fuel consumption in the world. Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane are rated part the majority car-dependent cities in the world, with Sydney and Melbourne close behind. Furthermore, the distance travelled by car (or similar vehicle) in Australia is part the highest in the world, being exceeded by USA and Canada.
 
The railway network is large, comprising a total of 33,819 km (2,540 km electrified) of track: 3,719 km broad gauge, 15,422 km standard gauge, 14,506 km narrow gauge and 172 km dual gauge. Rail transport started in the various colonies at different dates. Privately owned railways started the first lines, and struggled to succeed on a remote, huge, and sparsely populated continent, and government railways dominated. Although the various colonies had been advised by London to choose a common gauge, the colonies ended up with different gauges.
 
Australia's inland waterways are not a significant means commercial transport. In the 19th century, paddle steamers were used on the Murray-Darling Basin to transport produce such as wool and wheat but the water levels are highly unreliable, making the river impassable for large parts of the year. The steamers proved unable to compete with rail, and later, road transport. Traffic now on inland waterways is therefore largely restricted to private recreational craft. The only Australian capital cities without such networks are Canberra and Darwin.
 
Trams in Australia historically serviced a lot of Australian towns and several cities formerly operated tram networks, however the majority of these were shut down before the 1970s. Melbourne is an exception here however, and today boasts the major tram network of any city in the world. Major regional cities where trams formerly facilitated multi-modal public transport networks Launceston, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Rockhampton.
 
Most major cities have at minimum bus services and these cities have been excluded services as have any with tourist or heritage transport (such as the private monorail at Sea World or the tourist Victor Harbor Horse Drawn Tram).
 
Hited by the world downturn, Australia's total trade fell by an estimated 4.44% in real terms in 2009 and we see a 4.9% rebound in 2010, followed by 4.2% decline in 2011. This year imports will grow additional strongly than exports in real terms (6.0% vs 3.2%). The wanted export-led recovery may not materialise for some time from now on, as we expect Chinese request to slow at the end of 2010 and into 2011, as Beijing tries to deflate a property bubble we fear has emerged. In doing so, we see China's construction sector decrease its request for steel, and, therefore, this will knock on to China's request for iron ore and coal. This will, in turn, will hit Australia, which caters for China's commodity demands.
Airports - with paved runways Total: 
325
Airports - with unpaved runways Total: 
139
Transportation - note: