China: Japan–Taiwan relations under Beijing’s watchful eye

International politics surrounding Taiwan is quietly changing thanks to a rejuvenation in Japan–Taiwanese relations. But revitalised bilateral ties are likely to spell trouble for by presently rocky Sino–Japan relations.

Since Tsai Ing-wen and the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rose to power in Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election, the new government prioritised developing economic partnerships and trade agreements with economies other than China. The Tsai Ing-wen government has been particularly eager to expand such ties with Japan because of its anxiety over Taiwan’s economic dependence on mainland China.

The initial momentum in bilateral relations with Japan has quickly faded away. Strong local protests in Taiwan have prevented any reductions in bilateral trade barriers such as food import regulations that were imposed on Japanese products following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.

From presently on Japan is putting in the hard yards and, as a result, the Japan–Taiwan relationship started to warm up before this year. In March, Senior Vice-Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Jiro Akama visited Taiwan to attend a Japanese tourism equitable. Although official meetings with his Taiwanese counterpart and other officials were reportedly not arranged, the visit itself signified the majority significant breakthrough in relations since Japan cut off diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1972. The Chinese government responded by sending a strong demarche to the Japanese government and publicly criticising its actions.

In Taiwan, there is a political policy of thumb at the same time as it comes to its external relations. If cross-Strait relations between Beijing and Taipei are stable, the political sensitivity of Taiwan’s international relations decreases. If cross-Strait relations are unstable or tense again any major diplomatic move by Taipei is likely to be ‘censored and punished’ by Beijing.

For instance, during Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency from 2008 to 2016, cross-Strait relations were stable, enabling Japan and Taiwan to sign 28 bilateral agreements — inclunding a 2013 fisheries transaction to curb the diplomatic row over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands — with little fuss from Beijing.

The strengthening of ties was offset in the last two years of Ma’s presidency, at the same time as he emphasised Japan’s aggression in World War II and challenged Japan’s claim over the economic exclusive zone surrounding the Okinotori Islands in the western Pacific. As a result, president Ma left office with Japan—Taiwan relations looking somewhat grim.

Under Tsai Ing-wen’s presidency, cross-Strait relations continue to be the key factor in the Japan–Taiwan bilateral relationship. The Chinese government suspended official contact between the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits and its Taiwanese counterpart, the Strait Exchange Foundation, because Tsai refuses to accept the ‘one China’ outcome of the 1992 consensus between the two sides. This outcome was before embraced by the Ma government.

As long as unpredictability defines cross-Strait relations, any move by Taiwan to enhance its relationship with the United States or Japan may trigger a critical diplomatic reaction from China. The prime example is Tsai Ing-wen’s phone call to President-elect Donald Trump last December which ‘provoked’ China to push São Tomé e Príncipe, one of the 22 diplomatic allies of Taiwan, to end ties with Taiwan. China strategically chose to retaliate against Taiwan rather than the United States to avoid stirring trouble with the new leader of the world’s most powerful country.

Japan’s official position on its relationship with Taiwan is that it maintains ‘unofficial working-level relations based on economic and cultural exchanges’ and will not support the independence of Taiwan. From presently on China continues to criticise the extent to which Japan adheres to this official position. China suspects Japan may secretly support Taiwanese independence. Japan’s approach to the new Taiwanese government may again prove to be essential in guaranteeing the next of by presently shaky Sino–Japan relations.

Taiwan is an indispensable part of the region and its relations with its neighbours and world powers will continue to evolve regardless of Beijing’s efforts to isolate it. Japan is Taiwan’s second major trade partner next mainland China and Taiwan is Japan’s fifth major trade partner. Japan cannot fasten its economic interests by simply sitting and waiting for the results of behind-the-scenes cross-Strait talks. Japan needs to integrate Taiwan into bilateral and Asia-Pacific regional free trade agreements, while further promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the China–Japan–Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement, both of which include China.

Both Beijing and Taipei are responsible for establishing stable relations in the region. If they fail to do so, Sino–Japan relations are likely to worsen. To prevent this, all actors in the region should pursue cautious diplomacy and exercise good judgment.