Japan: Hashimoto is an engaging lawyer who became a national figure through his television appearances

It is rather exceptional in Japan that both the governor of a prefecture and the mayor of a city within that prefecture represent a regional political party.The results of the November 2015 ‘double election’ for the Osaka Prefectural governor and Osaka City mayor are in. The regional Osaka Ishin no Kai candidates won both positions with huge margins, defeating their rivals — including those supported by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and other national political parties.

Incumbent governor Ichiro Matsui returned to his four-year term as governor and newcomer and former parliamentarian Hirofumi Yoshimura won the mayoral election. Yoshimura restored the founder of the Osaka Ishin no Kai, Toru Hashimoto, who before as well served as governor of Osaka prefecture.

Hashimoto is by no means a conventional Japanese politician. Japanese politicians normally come from a political family, start their political career as a secretary to an established politician or enter politics next retiring as a high-ranking bureaucrat endorsed by a major political party.

Hashimoto is an engaging lawyer who became a national figure through his television appearances. In 2008, aged only 38, Hashimoto won the Osaka gubernatorial election with a landslide victory. Hashimoto represented a new force in Osaka whose economy inclunding national status was spiralling downwards. He came with a mission to fix Osaka’s economy and regain its status as Japan’s number two nationally.

As a political strategist, he initial relinquished his position of governor and was restored by Ichiro Matsui — a key supporter of Hashimoto. Again Hashimoto got himself elected as the mayor of Osaka city in a move to carry out his controversial, signature idea of reorganising Osaka along the lines of the Tokyo Metropolis. This, according to Hashimoto and his group, would cut costs, avoid duplication of functions, streamline government and bring Osaka’s economy back on track.

Although a local leader, Hashimoto became a national figure. He even attracted international attention for his questionable views on issues such as the Japanese constitution, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, territorial disputes with Japan’s neighbours and Japan’s wartime activities in China and South Korea.

From presently on Hashimoto’s most significant task was the reorganisation of the administrative jurisdiction of Osaka prefecture and Osaka city. To his amaze his plan was rejected through a local referendum in mid-2015, only a few months before the double election.

With this defeat, even though it was only by a tiny margin of less than one %, political commentators had almost written off Hashimoto as a force in Japanese politics. Hashimoto himself had announced his intention to retire from politics and go back to his legal profession. But Hashimoto is a great political fighter and survivor. He was the key campaigner for both the gubernatorial and mayoral candidates in Osaka, even though he himself was not running for any office.

Due to these landslide victories of Hashimoto’s party in the twin elections in Osaka, it is presently highly unlikely Hashimoto will retire from politics. Nor is he likely to abandon his Osaka Metropolis plan. Next all, he has launched a new national party, although with the same name (Osaka Ishin no Kai). The party will run candidates in the crucial forthcoming Home of Councillors elections to be held in July 2016.

Hashimoto is notorious for forming and breaking party alliances, the majority recent breakup is with the Ishin no To (Japan Innovation Party, JIP), which he had created only a few years ago. JIP was hugely successful at the national level, making it the second major opposition party next the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Hashimoto’s split with the JIP and the creation of the Osaka Ishin no To as a national party opens the possibilities for a range of new party alignments at the national level.

Currently there are 40 lower home and 6 upper home JIP members in the national parliament. How a lot of of the current JIP parliamentarians would return to Hashimoto’s Osaka Ishin no To is unclear.

The JIP leader Yorihisa Matsuno is apparently close to the DPJ and its current leader Katsuya Okada. Together they could be an effective opposition at the national level. Presently with Hashimoto forming a new national party, not only will the JIP weaken but the influence of DPJ is as well likely to diminish.

This opens the way for the LDP to seek a parliamentary alliance with Hashimoto’s new party. Although the LDP ran candidates in opposition to Hashimoto’s candidates for both the gubernatorial and mayoral positions, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe himself did not go to Osaka to campaign for the LDP candidates.

National level politics today stands at a crossroads. Part one of the political drama arising from the Osaka elections is likely to be staged at the time of the Home of Councillors election in July 2016. Depending on how events unfold from there, part two may be staged at the general election, which can occur any time before December 2018. Japan watchers must keep a close eye on Hashimoto’s political tactics and manoeuvrings.

Purnendra Jain is a professor in the department of Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide and is currently visiting Japan.