Americas > North America > United States > Donald Trump and Sub-Saharan Africa, An isolationist and protectionist schedule

United States: Donald Trump and Sub-Saharan Africa, An isolationist and protectionist schedule

2016/12/03

The election upset of Donald Trump winning the US presidential vote will have implications for Sub-Saharan Africa. In the near term, the impact is likely to be relatively modest, inclunding volatility in currency and financial markets. In the medium term, the consequences of Mr Trump's isolationist tendencies will probably be additional keenly felt via cuts to aid flows and less focus on supporting democracy and human rights. Backing for anti-terrorism initiatives will probably be maintained given the threat terrorism potentially poses to US national security and interests, but in general a cooling of relations appears likely.

Sub-Saharan Africa was hardly at the centre of US foreign policy under the Obama government. That it was not additional of a focus was a source of disappointment part a lot of Africans, given the fact that Barack Obama's father was Kenyan. Notable achievements during his presidency include the US$20bn Power Africa programme, intended to provide 60m new electricity connections, Trade Africa, aimed at increasing intra-regional trade, and the Young African Leaders Initiative, which targets long-term improvements in governance.

A blank check to dictators

With Mr Trump appearing to lack interest in, and knowledge of, African affairs, he may well delegate much Africa policy to technocrats and policy wonks, suggesting that some of the Obama government's initiatives may continue. However, Mr Trump's campaign has been characterised by isolationism and protectionism. As a result, he is unlikely to want to expend much energy on criticising autocrats and human rights offenders in Africa. Indeed, the Trump government may place less emphasis on good governance as a condition for bilateral aid than has been done under Mr Obama in an attempt to counter China's growing economic influence in Africa. This would make life easier for the region's a lot of long-serving dictators who try to quell domestic opposition. For example, the US has been leading a drive to implement sanctions on alleged human rights offenders in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) while calling for the incumbent president there, Joseph Kabila, to respect the constitution and stand down at the same time as his term ends in December.

A lot of opposition forces in autocratic African nations derive moral and diplomatic support from the US, which acts as a vocal critic on the international scene of authoritarian and repressive tactics. If this external backing was to fade or disappear, authoritarian leaders would find it easier to crack down on their opponents, particularly as China, an extra major player in the region, has a clear hands-off approach at the same time as it comes to domestic politics in foreign nations. From presently on, ambiguity has been a hallmark of Mr Trump's campaign. In 2015, Mr Trump said he would lock Robert Mugabe, the long-ruling and authoritarian leader of Zimbabwe, inclunding Yoweri Museveni, the president of Uganda since 1986, in prison, seemingly because of their dictatorial tendencies. This underscores not only Mr Trump's dubious considerate of international law, but as well the uncertainty about the US policy direction, indicating that the US may, at least at times, remain a supportive partner of pro-democracy forces in Africa.

Aid cuts and currency volatility

An isolationist and protectionist schedule as well makes it likely that foreign aid flows will be cut. Mr Trump said little about aid during the campaign and both Democrats and Republicans typically support foreign aid initiatives, although their considerate of what it should entail can vary. However, one of Mr Trump's core messages has been that US citizens' interests have been overlooked by previous administrations. The undertone of this is that government funds should not be used to support people abroad but instead invested in schools and roads in the US. Although widely lauded aid schemes, such as support for HIV/AIDS reduction, are likely to be maintained, a Trump presidency appears likely to translate into smaller foreign aid flows. This could harm economic increase as support for infrastructure projects is scaled down. Mr Trump has as well shown disdain for issues related to climate change, and funding for environmental preservation and resource management could potentially see some of the deepest cuts.

In broader economic terms, the impact of Mr Trump's shock victory will be mixed. A lot of African nations have currencies pegged to the euro. With the US dollar likely to weaken against the euro in the short term, this will reduce inflationary pressures in these nations. From presently on inflationary pressures are by presently very low in most nations with a euro peg while a stronger currency will affect their competitiveness. Although a Trump presidency will probably strengthen safe-haven currencies such as the euro and the yen (at least in the short term), emerging market currencies will probably come under pressure, thus potentially raising inflationary pressures while boosting competitiveness in those nations that have additional liberalised exchange-rate systems.

Mr Trump's opposition to free trade could as well affect Africa. The Africa Increase and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which was launched in 2000 to give African nations business-free access to the US market, would probably be relatively easy to rescind, at least compared with the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he has promised to renegotiate. AGOA could be an opportunity for the president-elect to show his supporters that he is critical about his protectionist schedule. The benefits for African exports stemming from AGOA have been relatively limited so far, however, so the impact on the region would be modest for most nations.

Counterterrorism operations set to continue

In terms of security and counterterrorism, the implications of a Trump presidency are ambiguous. On the one hand, his firm opposition to foreign military ventures suggests that US military involvement on the continent could be scaled down. On the other, US security engagement on the continent is relatively modest, compared with that of France, for example. US efforts have mainly focused counterterrorism operations. This has primarily been done via efforts to boost capacities of local militaries and intelligence services through training programmes while providing equipment and staff to strengthen surveillance capacities. Given the relatively low cost of maintaining such initiatives and Mr Trump's tough rhetoric on terrorism, these initiatives may well be maintained, particularly as terrorist networks in Africa could due or not instantly pose a threat to US interests.

In general, Mr Trump's apparent intention to put additional focus on US domestic issues suggests that the country's relations with Sub-Saharan Africa are unlikely to deepen during his reign. From presently on they did not receive a large boost under the Obama presidency either, which means there will not be a drastic change. A lot of African administrations will thus continue to look to China to boost credit and trade flows. Mr Trump's negative views on China may mean that he will seek to counter its influence, but Africa is unlikely to be the major scene where this dynamic plays out, given the uncertain benefits that would involve.

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